KOSDAQSemiconductors403870

Hpsp

₩66,100▼ 4.20%2026-10-02 close
Market Cap
₩5.4T
Turnover
₩233.6B
Volume
3.5M
Shares out.
82.3M
PER
48.0×
PBR
13.1×
EPS
₩1,058
Dividend Yield
0.98%

PER, EPS, PBR and BPS are calculated in-house from the last 4 quarters (2025Q3–2026Q2) · Dividend yield is based on ₩500 per share · Prices as of the 2026-10-02 close

01

Report overview

A Crack in the HPA Monopoly, With New Tools in the Balance

HPSP still earns operating margins above 50% from its near-monopoly in high-pressure hydrogen annealing tools, but revenue has been flat for three years and the next cycle hinges on new competition, ongoing patent litigation, and the timing of new product commercialization.

  1. 1

    2025 revenue of KRW 172.96bn and operating profit of KRW 89.90bn were down 4.7% and 4.3% from 2024, leaving sales stuck in the KRW 170-180bn range since 2023.

  2. 2

    Operating margin stayed above 50% for four straight years (53.5% in 2022, 53.2% in 2023, 51.8% in 2024, 52.0% in 2025) and spiked to 61.4% in 2Q26, showing wide quarterly swings.

  3. 3

    Rival YEST shipped its first high-pressure hydrogen annealing tool in March 2026, changing what had been an effectively single-supplier market.

  4. 4

    In June 2026 the Patent Court held HPSP's key patent valid but found YEST non-infringing, while the infringement case at the Seoul Central District Court is still running.

  5. 5

    Whether new tools such as high-pressure oxidation and hybrid-bonding annealing equipment start booking revenue from 2027 is the key test of reducing single-product dependence.

02

Business structure

HPSP is a front-end semiconductor equipment maker specialized in high-pressure hydrogen annealing (HPA) tools; its name stands for High Pressure Solution Provider.

High-k gate dielectrics inevitably create interface defects and electrical instability that require annealing, but conventional solutions need temperatures above 600C because of low hydrogen concentration, which damages metal gates and wiring; HPSP's tool achieves deep, uniform hydrogen diffusion at much lower temperatures using high pressure and high hydrogen concentration, making it essential in HKMG processes.

Whereas conventional annealing runs at 600-1,100C, HPSP lowered process temperature to roughly 250-450C, allowing use in sub-10nm nodes.

Around 20 global chipmakers including Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, TSMC of Taiwan and Intel of the US use the tool, and the CEO noted that the 2024 operating margin of 52% marked a third straight year above 50%.

Disclosed segment-level revenue detail is limited, so no split is quoted here; the model combines tool sales with maintenance-related other revenue. Lead Economy reported in April 2026 that exports account for more than 92% of HPSP's equipment sales.

The product line remains close to a single HPA axis, and the company is developing a high-pressure oxidation (HPO) tool that grows silicon oxide films under high pressure.

On competition, Samsung Securities raised its HPSP market share assumption from 80% to 95% after the November 2024 patent ruling, while YEST shipped its first HPA tool to a global chipmaker in March 2026, effectively ending HPSP's monopoly. The company appointed Dr.

Lee Chun-heung, a former Intel senior vice president, as CEO and formalized expansion into back-end and packaging technologies.

03

Earnings trend

Quarterly revenue · Operating profit
RevenueOperating profit
Annual revenue · Operating profit
RevenueOperating profit
Quarterly results · Last 5 quarters
QuarterRevenueOperating profitOp. margin
2025Q2₩51.3B₩28.6B55.8%
2025Q3₩32B₩15.1B47.1%
2025Q4₩52.7B₩27.4B52.1%
2026Q1₩31.9B₩16.1B50.5%
2026Q2₩46.1B₩28.3B61.4%
Annual results
YearRevenueOperating profitNet income (parent)Op. marginROEDebt-to-equity
2022₩159.3B₩85.2B₩66B53.5%33.8%33.6%
2023₩179.1B₩95.2B₩80.4B53.2%29.0%15.7%
2024₩181.4B₩93.9B₩86.3B51.8%31.0%15.1%
2025₩173B₩89.9B₩72.7B52.0%23.6%19.9%

Consolidated basis (financial statements including subsidiaries) · Final figures from DART filings · Net income attributable to owners of the parent · Data as of 2026-09-04

04

Earnings analysis

For 2025, revenue was KRW 172.96bn, operating profit KRW 89.90bn and net profit attributable to owners KRW 72.66bn, down 4.7%, 4.3% and 15.8% respectively from 2024 (KRW 181.40bn, KRW 93.95bn, KRW 86.28bn).

Revenue rose from KRW 159.34bn in 2022 to KRW 179.09bn in 2023 but has since hovered in the KRW 170bn range, a third year of stagnation, while operating profit peaked at KRW 95.21bn in 2023. Operating margin held in a narrow band: 53.5% in 2022, 53.2% in 2023, 51.8% in 2024 and 52.0% in 2025.

Quarterly results alternate between soft odd quarters and strong even quarters: from KRW 32.05bn revenue and KRW 15.11bn operating profit (47.1% margin) in 3Q25 to KRW 52.68bn and KRW 27.44bn (52.1%) in 4Q25, then KRW 31.94bn and KRW 16.14bn (50.5%) in 1Q26 and KRW 46.12bn and KRW 28.31bn (61.4%) in 2Q26.

Second-quarter 2026 revenue was 10.2% below the KRW 51.35bn of 2Q25, yet operating profit was almost unchanged at KRW 28.31bn versus KRW 28.64bn, and margin improved from 55.8% to 61.4%, illustrating how much product and customer mix moves profitability.

Over the four quarters from 3Q25 to 2Q26, revenue totaled KRW 162.79bn and operating profit KRW 87.00bn, a margin of about 53%.

Net profit attributable to owners of KRW 24.86bn in 1Q26 exceeded that quarter's KRW 16.14bn operating profit, implying non-operating contributions whose details need to be checked in the quarterly report footnotes.

The balance sheet stayed conservative, with equity of KRW 308.23bn, liabilities of KRW 61.48bn and a debt-to-equity ratio of 19.9% at end-2025 (15.1% in 2024), while 2025 operating cash flow of KRW 100.21bn exceeded operating profit.

Company Monitor attributed the 1Q26 decline to memory and foundry makers moderating the pace of capital spending.

05

Industry analysis

End-market demand for annealing rests on two pillars: leading-edge logic and high-layer memory. Analysts expect HPA demand for yield improvement to expand as Samsung Electronics, Intel and Rapidus join TSMC in adopting 2nm processes, and see rising utility in hybrid bonding for NAND stacks above 300 layers.

Hybrid bonding adoption is expected to widen around high-bandwidth memory and to appear in next-generation NAND above 400 layers and 3D DRAM. In cycle terms, however, the first half of 2026 looked closer to a spending-digestion phase.

Amid geopolitical risk and industry volatility, memory and foundry capex moderation weighed on results, even as AI diffusion and data center demand accelerate leading-edge migration and support solid medium-term HPA demand. HPSP still holds a dominant share, but the single-supplier structure has been disturbed.

YEST claims a world-first single-batch 125-wafer capability, about 60% more than the prior 75-wafer maximum, and device makers' preference for multi-vendor sourcing on supply stability and cost works in a new entrant's favor.

In hybrid bonding, back-end tool makers such as Hanmi Semiconductor and Hanwha Semitech are developing competing technology, so HPSP as a front-end supplier is entering a new competitive arena.

06

Outlook

The company's disclosed growth strategy centers on broadening its product line.

HPSP has set a goal of sequentially commercializing three new tool types by 2029 to reduce dependence on a single HPA product, with a high-pressure wet oxidation tool first in line, currently in customer beta testing, and related revenue expected as early as 2027.

It has secured a site in Hwaseong, Gyeonggi Province for new tool production, to be used if existing capacity proves insufficient, with capex timing seen around 2027.

For hybrid-bonding annealing tools the stated target is more than KRW 300bn of revenue from 2029 onward, and a company official said the aim is to lift 2030 revenue to four or five times the 2024 level through these new products. On the near-term path, sell-side views leaned toward second-half recovery.

On May 7, 2026, NH Investment & Securities said HPSP should return to a growth trajectory this year and raised its target price from KRW 51,500 to KRW 65,000, with its analyst stating that new line investments in both logic and memory begin in the second quarter and that results should recover from a first-quarter trough.

Daishin Securities, in an April 2026 report, forecast operating profit growing to KRW 124.4bn in 2026 and KRW 153.4bn in 2027. Lead Economy reported in April 2026 that the sell-side consensus looked for 2026 revenue of KRW 234.1bn and operating profit of KRW 124.5bn.

All of these rest on second-half tool deliveries and new line investment proceeding on schedule, so the actual timing of quarterly revenue recognition is the swing factor.

07

Valuation

PER
48.0×
PBR
13.1×
ROE
29.4%
EPS
₩1,058
BPS
₩3,887
Dividend per share
₩500

Within the KOSDAQ semiconductor equipment group, HPSP trades toward the high end on both earnings and book-value multiples, at a sizable premium to net assets.

The premium is usually justified by four consecutive years of operating margins above 50%, a debt-to-equity ratio below 20%, and its position as an essential leading-edge process tool supplier.

On the other side, revenue has effectively moved sideways since 2023 while the earnings multiple embeds a meaningful recovery in growth, so any delay in second-half revenue recognition or new product commercialization would test that assumption.

Lead Economy reported in April 2026 that the price-to-earnings ratio based on that year's expected operating profit exceeded 36 times.

Samsung Securities said in an October 2025 report that it applied ASML's 34 times price-to-earnings multiple in setting its HPSP target price, on the grounds that both companies' tools are essential to leading-edge processes.

The company pays a regular annual cash dividend, but the yield sits below the broader market average, so the valuation debate centers on whether profit growth resumes rather than on shareholder returns.

PER, EPS, PBR and BPS are all calculated in-house (the same method as Naver and Toss) · Dividend yield = cash dividend per share from DART filings (supplemented by KRX) ÷ current price · As of 2026-09-04

08

Bull factors

Margins and cash generation held through a soft tool cycle

Even through the flat 2023-2025 stretch, operating margin stayed above 50% at 53.2%, 51.8% and 52.0%, then rose to 61.4% in 2Q26. Operating cash flow of KRW 100.21bn in 2025 exceeded that year's KRW 89.90bn operating profit, and the debt-to-equity ratio stayed at 19.9%. A light fixed-cost base and a net-cash-style balance sheet limit loss risk during gaps in customer capex.

Two demand paths: 2nm migration and high-layer memory

Reports note a dominant view that HPA demand for yield improvement will expand as Samsung Electronics, Intel and Rapidus follow TSMC into 2nm processes. Brokerages also see rising value for HPSP tools in hybrid bonding for NAND stacks above 300 layers.

An NH Investment & Securities analyst said in May 2026 that new line investments start in the second quarter in both logic and memory. A broader application base spanning foundry and memory would reduce dependence on any single customer's investment schedule.

A new product pipeline aimed at breaking single-product dependence

Under a plan to commercialize three new tool types by 2029, the company is running customer beta tests of a high-pressure wet oxidation tool and expects related revenue as early as 2027.

It is also developing hybrid-bonding annealing equipment and expects demand to grow quickly as adoption spreads from CMOS image sensors into DRAM and NAND. The appointment of a former Intel executive as CEO, formalizing expansion into back-end and packaging, is cited as another diversification signal. If these products convert into actual orders, the structural limitation of a single HPA axis would ease.

09

Bear factors

A third year of flat revenue

Revenue was essentially flat at KRW 179.09bn in 2023, KRW 181.40bn in 2024 and KRW 172.96bn in 2025, turning down last year. Operating profit slipped from KRW 95.21bn in 2023 to KRW 89.90bn in 2025, and net profit attributable to owners fell 15.8% from KRW 86.28bn in 2024 to KRW 72.66bn in 2025.

Analysis points to foundry customers other than TSMC reusing existing tools through node transitions, cutting new demand, while memory revenue conversion after qualification came later than expected. In short, proprietary technology has not translated into revenue growth for an extended stretch.

New entrant and the multi-vendor trend

YEST delivered a 75-wafer HPA tool for mass-production testing into a global chipmaker's fab in March 2026, after saying in December 2025 that it would supply two global chipmakers in 2026, effectively ending HPSP's monopoly.

Its world-first 125-wafer tool was confirmed for a global memory maker in December 2025, with delivery scheduled for the second half of 2026. Device makers generally prefer multi-vendor sourcing for supply stability and cost efficiency. Both share and pricing power could be tested at the same time.

A weakened patent perimeter and drawn-out litigation

In June 2026 the Patent Court found HPSP's key patent valid but held that YEST did not infringe it, and the patent's scope had been narrowed through a correction trial. Earlier, in May 2026, the Intellectual Property Trial and Appeal Board ruled another HPSP patent on high-pressure gas heat treatment invalid.

HPSP appealed that decision to the Patent Court, and at an August 2026 hearing at the Seoul Central District Court argued that YEST must submit additional video of the tool it delivered to Samsung Electronics. A prolonged dispute means continuing management attention and legal costs.

10

Risk factors

Customer concentration and quarterly volatility

Quarterly revenue swings nearly twofold, from KRW 32.05bn in 3Q25 to KRW 52.68bn in 4Q25, and the pattern repeated in 2026 with KRW 31.94bn in the first quarter versus KRW 46.12bn in the second. Because one or two tool deliveries can determine a quarter, single-quarter figures are a poor guide to trend.

With exports reported at more than 92% of sales, the company is sensitive to schedule changes at a small number of overseas customers. Repeated deferral or early recognition can widen gaps versus consensus.

Export controls and geopolitics

Lead Economy reported in April 2026 on foreign coverage of a bill with bipartisan support that would require allies to join US export controls on chip tools for China within 150 days, with the scope expected to widen beyond EUV to DUV lithography and cryogenic etch tools.

The same article noted it remains unclear whether HPSP's high-pressure annealing tools would be directly listed. Earlier, KB Securities said in a May 2025 report that China's leading-edge memory investment would lift related demand and identified China revenue growth as the key to that year's results. With China exposure elevated, wider controls could disrupt the revenue path.

New product schedule slippage

Samsung Securities said in an October 2025 report that management expected meaningful test results within the following first half, and that if positive results led to orders in the second half, a six-to-nine month lead time would put first revenue recognition around the first half of 2027.

The same report noted that pricing and unit requirements for HPO tools are hard to gauge, and estimated that at KRW 5.5bn per unit with one customer taking two units, revenue of KRW 11bn would equal about 4% of its 2027 revenue estimate.

Early contribution may be modest, and timelines can slip at the test, order and volume-production stages. The pace of hybrid bonding adoption itself depends on customer roadmaps.

11

What to watch next

  1. Mid-September 2026

    The final hearing in the patent infringement case at the Seoul Central District Court is set for mid-September. The first-instance ruling that follows will be a marker for the competitive landscape and the practical strength of HPSP's patent perimeter.

  2. Around November 2026

    Third-quarter 2026 results will show whether the second half accelerates after first-half revenue of KRW 78.11bn. Key items are whether odd-quarter revenue again drops toward the KRW 30bn range as in 3Q25, and whether operating margin holds above 50%.

  3. Second half of 2026

    Rival YEST's 125-wafer HPA tool is scheduled for delivery to a global memory maker in the second half of 2026. Actual delivery and adoption in volume production directly affect share assumptions for HPSP, so related filings and reports are worth tracking.

  4. 4Q26 to 1H27

    This window will reveal beta test results and any first orders for the high-pressure wet oxidation tool, plus the timing of related revenue that the company put at 2027 at the earliest. The capex decision on the Hwaseong site, which management placed around 2027, is another item to watch.

  5. Around February 2027

    Full-year 2026 results and the annual dividend decision are disclosed around this time. It will show the gap versus the 2026 sell-side forecast of KRW 234.1bn revenue and KRW 124.5bn operating profit reported by Lead Economy in April 2026, and whether growth resumed from 2025 revenue of KRW 172.96bn.

12

Overall view

HPSP has built an effectively sole-supplier position in the narrow but deep market for high-pressure hydrogen annealing tools, delivering four consecutive years of operating margins above 50% with a debt-to-equity ratio under 20%.

Revenue, however, has been flat for three years at KRW 179.09bn in 2023, KRW 181.40bn in 2024 and KRW 172.96bn in 2025, with profits declining last year as well.

Quarterly swings remain wide, from KRW 32.05bn in 3Q25 to KRW 52.68bn in 4Q25 and from KRW 31.94bn in 1Q26 to KRW 46.12bn in 2Q26, showing that tool delivery timing still dictates results.

The constructive case rests on 2nm logic diffusion, expansion into high-layer NAND and hybrid bonding, and a new product pipeline led by the high-pressure oxidation tool.

The cautious case rests on YEST's market entry and device makers' multi-vendor preference, a patent whose scope was narrowed by correction plus ongoing litigation, and the possibility of broader US export controls aimed at China.

The decisive questions for the next few quarters are whether second-half revenue recognition truly accelerates, whether new products move from testing into orders, and how much the rival's volume deliveries shift share assumptions. This report is for information purposes only and contains no buy or sell opinion and no target price.

13

Sources

  1. Korea Exchange (KRX) — Prices · Market Cap · Volume
  2. FSS electronic disclosure system (DART) — Financial statements · Dividend filings
Show 18 more articles and sources
  1. investing.com
  2. m.irgo.co.kr
  3. samsungpop.com
  4. comp.wisereport.co.kr
  5. alphasquare.co.kr
  6. comp.wisereport.co.kr
  7. comp.wisereport.co.kr
  8. asiae.co.kr
  9. file.alphasquare.co.kr
  10. threads.com
  11. zdnet.co.kr
  12. leadeconomy.co.kr
  13. samsungpop.com
  14. youtube.com
  15. eureka.hankyung.com
  16. m.irgo.co.kr
  17. news.infostock.co.kr
  18. markets.hankyung.com

Report written 2026-09-05 · Data as of 2026-09-04

This content is AI analysis of market data and web search results, provided for information only. It is not a solicitation or recommendation to invest. Investment decisions and their consequences are the investor's own responsibility. Data may be delayed or contain errors.