KOSPIMedia & Entertainment352820

Hybe

₩155,400▼ 0.51%2026-10-02 close
Market Cap
₩6.7T
Turnover
₩22.2B
Volume
140,000 shares
Shares out.
43.1M
PER
—
PBR
2.2×
EPS
-₩8,890
Dividend Yield
0.28%

PER, EPS, PBR and BPS are calculated in-house from the last 4 quarters (2025Q3–2026Q2) · Dividend yield is based on ₩500 per share · Prices as of the 2026-10-02 close

01

Report overview

Record Quarter Meets Unresolved Legal Overhang

A full-group BTS world tour drove HYBE's largest-ever quarterly revenue and operating profit in 2Q26, yet a concert-heavy cost mix and the founder's legal case both remain open items to monitor.

  1. 1

    2Q26 revenue reached KRW 1.45tn with operating profit of KRW 170.9bn, the highest quarterly figures on record, swinging from a KRW 196.6bn operating loss in 1Q26.

  2. 2

    Still, cumulative first-half 2026 operating profit is negative, and the sum of the latest four quarters (3Q25-2Q26) shows losses at both the operating and owners' net level.

  3. 3

    The 1Q26 operating loss reflected roughly KRW 255bn of accounting expense from the largest shareholder's share donation for employee bonuses; the company disclosed adjusted operating profit of KRW 58.5bn.

  4. 4

    In 4Q25, roughly KRW 200bn of impairment tied to the North American restructuring was booked below the operating line, widening the owners' net loss.

  5. 5

    On 3 September 2026, police referred Chairman Bang Si-hyuk, CEO Lee Jae-sang and three others to prosecutors on alleged fraudulent trading under the Capital Markets Act, with a pre-indictment preservation order covering the full KRW 263.1bn of alleged illicit gains.

02

Business structure

HYBE runs a multi-label structure spanning recorded music, concerts, merchandise and licensing, content, and its own fan platform. Revenue is split between 'direct-participation' lines such as albums, concerts and advertising, and 'indirect-participation' lines such as merchandise, licensing, content and platform.

In 1Q26 direct-participation revenue was KRW 403.7bn, of which albums accounted for KRW 271.5bn, while indirect-participation revenue was KRW 294.7bn. In 2Q26, concerts contributed KRW 647.7bn, recorded music KRW 326.8bn and merchandise/licensing KRW 310.6bn, all record highs.

Beyond BTS, TOMORROW X TOGETHER, ENHYPEN, &TEAM, BOYNEXTDOOR, TWS and CORTIS became million-sellers on Korea's Circle Chart, while global group KATSEYE kept growing overseas.

Weverse bundles content subscriptions, digital memberships and commerce; management said it has strengthened revenue models such as digital memberships, direct messages and advertising that generate income regardless of artist activity schedules.

Geographically, Korea and Japan are complemented by North America and Latin America, and the company shifted its North American business from a management-centric model to a label-centric integrated IP model, set up entities in China and India, and debuted several Latin acts.

Competition runs against domestic peers SM, JYP and YG for IP, and against global majors and large promoters abroad. Adjacent businesses include games, where early marketing spend on a new MMORPG was cited as a drag on 4Q25 profitability.

03

Earnings trend

Quarterly revenue · Operating profit
RevenueOperating profit
Annual revenue · Operating profit
RevenueOperating profit
Quarterly results · Last 5 quarters
QuarterRevenueOperating profitOp. margin
2025Q2₩705.6B₩65.9B9.3%
2025Q3₩727.2B-₩42.2B−5.8%
2025Q4₩716.4B₩4B0.6%
2026Q1₩698.3B-₩196.6B−28.1%
2026Q2₩1.4T₩170.9B11.8%
Annual results
YearRevenueOperating profitNet income (parent)Op. marginROEDebt-to-equity
2022₩1.8T₩236.9B₩48B13.3%1.7%66.3%
2023₩2.2T₩295.6B₩187.3B13.6%6.4%71.9%
2024₩2.3T₩184B₩9.4B8.2%0.3%55.9%
2025₩2.6T₩49.3B-₩237.3B1.9%−7.3%54.5%

Consolidated basis (financial statements including subsidiaries) · Final figures from DART filings · Net income attributable to owners of the parent · Data as of 2026-09-04

04

Earnings analysis

Annually, revenue rose steadily from KRW 1.776tn in 2022 to KRW 2.178tn in 2023, KRW 2.256tn in 2024 and KRW 2.650tn in 2025, while profitability moved the other way.

Operating profit fell from KRW 295.6bn in 2023 (13.6% margin) to KRW 184.0bn in 2024 (8.2%) and KRW 49.3bn in 2025 (1.9%), with an owners' net loss of KRW 237.3bn in 2025.

Two forces drove the 2025 erosion: upfront investment in new artist debuts plus one-off restructuring costs pressured the operating line, while roughly KRW 200bn of goodwill impairment from converting the US business from a management-centric to a label-centric structure was booked as a non-operating item.

Quarterly, after KRW 65.9bn of operating profit in 2Q25 came a KRW 42.2bn operating loss in 3Q25 and only KRW 4.0bn in 4Q25, when the owners' net loss reached KRW 265.2bn.

In 1Q26, revenue hit a first-quarter record of KRW 698.3bn but the operating loss was KRW 196.6bn and the owners' net loss KRW 158.5bn, because shares worth KRW 255bn contributed by the largest shareholder as an employee bonus pool were recognised as accounting expense; the company called it a non-cash one-off and reported adjusted operating profit of KRW 58.5bn, an 8.4% margin.

In 2Q26, revenue of KRW 1.450tn, operating profit of KRW 170.9bn and owners' net profit of KRW 102.3bn were all quarterly records, lifting the operating margin to about 11.8%.

However, the 2Q gross margin slipped to 32% from 43% in the prior quarter, as a larger share of concert revenue, which carries high artist royalty costs, raised the cost ratio.

Operating cash flow declined from KRW 347.1bn in 2022 and KRW 310.6bn in 2023 to KRW 151.6bn in 2024 and KRW 107.5bn in 2025, while the debt-to-equity ratio improved from 71.9% in 2023 to 54.5% in 2025.

First-half 2026 operating profit remains negative on a cumulative basis and the latest four quarters combined still show an owners' net loss, so one record quarter does not yet settle the full-year picture.

05

Industry analysis

In the global music industry, streaming growth is maturing and value is shifting toward fandom-driven revenue such as concerts, merchandise and platforms. In K-pop, album sales track fandom size while concert revenue depends on show count, attendance and ticket pricing, so major IP tour cycles amplify earnings swings.

HYBE ranked fourth globally in Billboard's 2025 Boxscore annual Top Promoters list, up five places, and three of the four K-pop acts in Billboard's 2025 Top Tours were HYBE artists.

In recorded music it also held a leading domestic position, with about 19.6mn cumulative units and roughly a 30% share on Korea's 2025 annual Circle Chart. Structurally, a rising concert mix brings higher royalty and production costs, so top-line growth and margin expansion do not always move together.

Localised group strategies are being pursued by all four major K-pop houses, and HYBE points to overseas momentum at KATSEYE and CORTIS.

On the platform side, management said Weverse is in the first stage of expanding its Japanese artist roster and plans to lift platform margins by recruiting commerce-driving artists and growing the digital business mix.

By contrast, HYBE's US arm posted a net loss of KRW 323.1bn in 2025, a wider loss than the prior year, according to a June 2026 Dailypop report, showing overseas expansion has not yet translated fully into profit.

06

Outlook

The activity calendar the company has disclosed is weighted to the second half. HYBE said 12 acts staged 119 shows in the first half and more than 200 are scheduled in the second half, with merchandise and licensing revenue expected to rise alongside tours and offline events.

On tour scale, CEO Lee Jae-sang said on the February 2026 call that the first confirmed plan alone covers 82 shows in 34 cities worldwide, the most ever for a single K-pop artist tour. Platform metrics have been improving: Weverse monthly active users hit a record 13.37mn in 1Q26 and rose again to 14.43mn in 2Q26.

On capital returns, a three-year policy announced with the 2025 results shifted the dividend basis to consolidated free cash flow to reduce non-cash volatility, earmarking up to 30% of 2025-2027 free cash flow for shareholder returns and introducing a minimum dividend framework.

Strategically, Lee said 2026 is when various global IPs settle into their markets and that results should improve on stronger e-commerce capability and growth in the in-house digital business.

The open question is margin: whether gross and operating margins can hold near 2Q levels as the concert mix grows in the second half, and how much the post-renewal BTS royalty structure shows up in reported numbers.

07

Valuation

PER
—
PBR
2.2×
ROE
-11.3%
EPS
-₩8,890
BPS
₩80,428
Dividend per share
₩500

Because the sum of owners' net results over the latest four quarters (3Q25-2Q26) is negative, a price-to-earnings multiple cannot be calculated, so earnings-based multiple comparisons do not apply for now.

On a net-asset basis the shares carry a premium to book equity, which can be read as the market pricing in the pace of profit recovery seen from 2Q26.

Dividends now have a floor thanks to a free-cash-flow-based policy and a minimum dividend framework, but the absolute level is modest, leaving the dividend yield below the broad market average.

Reporting broker views as fact only: Hana Securities analyst Lee Ki-hoon maintained a target price of KRW 350,000 in a July 2026 report, and KB Securities kept a KRW 350,000 target on 7 July 2026, describing HYBE's forward EV/EBITDA of 15x as near the historical low end.

Separately, Kiwoom Securities analyst Lim Su-jin wrote on 29 July 2026 that the share price had fallen to about 20x estimated 2027 earnings, which she viewed as providing valuation support.

At the same time, one tally showed the six-month average broker target price down 11.5% versus the prior six-month average, indicating consensus earnings estimates themselves are still being revised.

PER, EPS, PBR and BPS are all calculated in-house (the same method as Naver and Toss) · Dividend yield = cash dividend per share from DART filings (supplemented by KRX) ÷ current price · As of 2026-09-04

08

Bull factors

Top-line leverage from the BTS tour

2Q26 revenue of KRW 1.450tn and operating profit of KRW 170.9bn were both records, reversing the prior quarter's KRW 196.6bn operating loss in a single step. Concert revenue jumped 243.3% year on year to KRW 647.7bn, attributed to dynamic pricing at BTS shows and a higher overall average ticket price.

The company said more than 200 shows are scheduled in the second half, with merchandise and licensing revenue expected to rise alongside. If those dates are delivered, fixed-cost absorption can work in the same direction.

Broader IP base and platform monetisation

In the first half of 2026 every HYBE Music Group act released new music, seven teams became million-sellers on Korea's Circle Chart, and KATSEYE and CORTIS kept growing abroad, evidence of a broadening IP base. Weverse monthly active users set successive records at 13.37mn in 1Q26 and 14.43mn in 2Q26.

Management said revenue streams independent of artist schedules grew more than 30% per quarter on average and now exceed 10% of platform revenue, supporting earnings stability.

One-offs taken early, balance sheet improved

Both the 4Q25 impairment and the 1Q26 share-donation charge were booked as non-cash accounting items. Kiwoom Securities analyst Lim Su-jin argued the 4Q impairment was a non-cash accounting cost with limited fundamental damage, effectively removing latent risk in advance.

The debt-to-equity ratio also improved from 71.9% in 2023 to 54.5% in 2025. Setting earnings aside, the capital structure now carries more cushion.

09

Bear factors

Margin dilution from concert-led growth

The 2Q26 gross margin fell to 32% from 43% in the prior quarter, with the higher cost ratio of the royalty-heavy concert business cited as the cause. Even in a quarter when revenue more than doubled, the operating margin stayed around 11.8%.

Kiwoom Securities noted that market expectations for high-margin merchandise-led results were instead met by concert-led top-line growth. As the second-half show count rises, the same dilution pressure can recur.

Legal risk around founder and management

On 3 September 2026 the Seoul Metropolitan Police financial crime unit referred Chairman Bang Si-hyuk and four HYBE-related figures to the Seoul Southern District Prosecutors' Office without detention, alleging fraudulent trading under the Capital Markets Act by telling investors there was no listing plan and thereby gaining KRW 263.1bn.

Those referred include CEO Lee Jae-sang and former CFO Kwon Yong-sang. A court granted a pre-indictment preservation order covering the entire KRW 263.1bn.

Bang's counsel said they have consistently explained the matter with objective materials and expect the allegations to be transparently resolved through due process. Because a sitting CEO is involved, management-continuity uncertainty remains.

Overseas profitability and remaining goodwill

Dailypop reported in June 2026 that HYBE's US entity posted a KRW 323.1bn net loss in 2025, wider than the KRW 140bn loss a year earlier.

The same report noted that Ithaca Holdings, acquired in 2021, has struggled to generate profit and that KRW 823.4bn of related goodwill remains on the books, keeping impairment questions alive. With a large impairment already recognised in 4Q25, any further charge depends on periodic impairment testing. Separate from operations, this amplifies net-income volatility.

10

Risk factors

Regulatory and legal

With the case now at the prosecutors' office, the key issues will be supplementary investigation, whether charges are filed, and whether the KRW 263.1bn figure calculated by police is accepted as is. Under the Capital Markets Act, gains of KRW 5bn or more can carry life imprisonment or at least five years in prison.

Police framed the conduct as harming the public interest in market order, while prosecutors reportedly saw it as closer to harm to early investors' private interests, leaving a legal-interpretation gap. Depending on how proceedings unfold, corporate reputation and management composition could be affected.

Earnings concentration

The swing in 2026 results depends heavily on delivering BTS tour dates and on ticket pricing. The company said its first confirmed plan alone covers 82 shows across 34 cities, so schedule changes, postponements or health issues inherent to live entertainment would widen quarterly variance.

History shows large swings, including a KRW 42.2bn operating loss in 3Q25 and a KRW 196.6bn operating loss in 1Q26. Profit can shift materially between quarters with a single IP cycle.

Cost and royalty structure

Post-renewal royalty terms for core IP can lower how much of revenue growth converts into profit. Kiwoom Securities said it cut its full-year adjusted operating profit estimate to KRW 463bn to conservatively reflect a heavier concert mix in the second half.

Investment in new acts also continues, with Latin American groups launched through reality series and audition formats. Operating cash flow of KRW 107.5bn in 2025, well below KRW 310.6bn in 2023, is another reason to track the cost structure closely.

11

What to watch next

  1. Early November 2026

    3Q26 results. It is the first quarter reflecting the 200-plus second-half shows, so the key check is whether gross and operating margins hold near 2Q levels as revenue grows.

  2. 4Q 2026

    Progress of supplementary investigation at the Seoul Southern District Prosecutors' Office and whether charges are filed, plus how much of the KRW 263.1bn preserved amount is recognised. Since a sitting CEO is involved, related governance disclosures also warrant attention.

  3. December 2026

    Disclosure of remaining and additional BTS world tour dates and the trend in Weverse monthly active users. More dates feed concert and merchandise revenue, while platform metrics indicate revenue resilience during activity gaps.

  4. February 2027

    Full-year 2026 results, the free-cash-flow-based shareholder return decision, and year-end impairment test outcomes. Whether additional impairment is taken on remaining North American goodwill will shape the net income line.

  5. First half of 2027

    Monetisation progress of IP meant to fill the gap after the BTS tour. Tour scale and album sales for localised IP such as CORTIS and KATSEYE will indicate earnings continuity.

12

Overall view

HYBE's 2Q26 delivered record quarterly revenue of KRW 1.450tn and operating profit of KRW 170.9bn, reversing the prior quarter's KRW 196.6bn operating loss.

Over a longer horizon, however, revenue grew from KRW 1.776tn in 2022 to KRW 2.650tn in 2025 while the operating margin fell from 13.3% to 1.9%, and the 2025 owners' net loss was KRW 237.3bn.

Cumulative first-half 2026 operating profit is still negative and the latest four quarters combined show an owners' net loss, so the durability of the recovery must be verified in second-half numbers.

Supportive factors include the 200-plus shows scheduled for the second half, successive record Weverse user metrics, and the fact that one-off charges have already run through the income statement.

Offsetting factors are gross margin dilution from a heavier concert mix, changing royalty terms, North American asset profitability, and the alleged fraudulent trading case referred to prosecutors on 3 September 2026.

With earnings-based multiples unavailable for now, the net-asset multiple and the direction of broker estimate revisions are both worth tracking. This material is for information purposes only and contains no buy or sell opinion or target price.

13

Sources

  1. Korea Exchange (KRX) — Prices · Market Cap · Volume
  2. FSS electronic disclosure system (DART) — Financial statements · Dividend filings
Show 18 more articles and sources
  1. v.daum.net
  2. v.daum.net
  3. zdnet.co.kr
  4. news.mtn.co.kr
  5. samsungpop.com
  6. dailypop.kr
  7. ket.kr
  8. newsis.com
  9. m.ddaily.co.kr
  10. v.daum.net
  11. techm.kr
  12. v.daum.net
  13. newspim.com
  14. kbthink.com
  15. khan.co.kr
  16. tenasia.co.kr
  17. joongangenews.com
  18. etoday.co.kr

Report written 2026-09-05 · Data as of 2026-09-04

This content is AI analysis of market data and web search results, provided for information only. It is not a solicitation or recommendation to invest. Investment decisions and their consequences are the investor's own responsibility. Data may be delayed or contain errors.