KOSPIEnergy & Power336260

Doosan Fuel Cell

₩45,900▲ 2.46%2026-10-02 close

Market Cap

₩3T

Turnover

₩18.2B

Volume

400,000 shares

Shares out.

65.5M

PER

—

PBR

11.5×

EPS

-₩2,340

Dividend Yield

0.00%

PER, EPS, PBR and BPS are calculated in-house from the last 4 quarters (2025Q3–2026Q2) · Dividend yield is based on ₩0 per share · Prices as of the 2026-10-02 close

Report overview

Export Orders Pile Up While Losses Continue

Large export contracts in the U.S. and Europe are reshaping the order mix, while a shrinking domestic auction market, quality-related costs and cash-flow strain remain embedded in results.

1
On September 2, 2026 the company disclosed a KRW 501.4 billion PAFC supply contract with U.S. affiliate HyAxiom, following a KRW 108.7 billion SOFC stack contract with Germany's Reverion on August 5.
2
Confirmed 2025 results show revenue of KRW 454.7 billion, an operating loss of KRW 105.7 billion (-23.2% margin) and a net loss of KRW 132.8 billion, a sharp widening of losses.
3
In 2Q26 revenue was KRW 44.3 billion with an operating loss of KRW 50.9 billion, as delayed main-equipment deliveries, cell stack replacement costs and SOFC underutilization losses landed in one quarter.
4
The domestic leg is shrinking: 2026 hydrogen power auction volumes were set at 930GWh for general hydrogen (about 125MW) and 500GWh for clean hydrogen.
5
With 2025 operating cash flow turning negative and the debt-to-equity ratio at 226.1% at end-2025, execution of second-half deliveries and management of inventory and borrowings are key watch items.

Business structure

Doosan Fuel Cell supplies main equipment for power-generation fuel cells and provides long-term service agreements (LTSA), with phosphoric acid fuel cells (PAFC) as its flagship product.

Centered on the Iksan plant, it has secured more than 800MW of installed references and annual capacity of about 275MW, and is reviewing further expansion in anticipation of North American demand.

From the second half of 2025 it began mass production of intermediate-temperature solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC), enabling combined solutions with its existing PAFC line, based on an intermediate-temperature stack developed through technology cooperation with the U.K.'s Ceres Power.

Revenue splits into main equipment and services; according to a Sisajournal-e report in July 2026, main-equipment revenue fell 82% from KRW 121.5 billion in the first quarter to KRW 21.5 billion in the second, while service revenue including maintenance was little changed at KRW 22.8 billion versus KRW 23.3 billion.

Domestic customers are developers awarded volumes in the hydrogen power auction market (CHPS); on April 29, 2026 the company signed a KRW 60.8 billion fuel cell system supply contract and a KRW 49.1 billion LTSA with Ansan Green Power.

Overseas, the group uses a division-of-roles structure: Doosan Corporation's U.S. subsidiary HyAxiom oversees R&D, sales, commissioning and LTSA in North America and Europe, while Doosan Fuel Cell uses Iksan as its production base and covers sales and LTSA in Asia.

A newer pillar is component foundry work: SOFC stacks for Reverion will be delivered sequentially through the second half of 2027 for eco-friendly generation facilities in Germany and Europe.

On competition, Eugene Investment & Securities analyst Han Byung-hwa said on September 2, 2026 that Doosan Fuel Cell is the only company globally with a large-capacity PAFC manufacturing line, and expected competition with Bloom Energy to intensify.

Separately, the consolidation of electric and hydrogen bus maker HyAxiom Motors as a wholly owned subsidiary affected 2024 consolidated results.

Earnings trend

Quarterly revenue · Operating profit

₩128.5B-₩1.9B25Q2₩90.8B-₩15.6B25Q3₩135.8B-₩76.6B25Q4₩144.8B-₩1.3B26Q1₩44.3B-₩50.9B26Q2

RevenueOperating profit

Annual revenue · Operating profit

₩312.1B₩7.2B2022₩260.9B₩1.6B2023₩411.8B-₩1.7B2024₩454.8B-₩105.7B2025

RevenueOperating profit

Quarterly results · Last 5 quarters
Quarter	Revenue	Operating profit	Op. margin
2025Q2	₩128.5B	-₩1.9B	−1.5%
2025Q3	₩90.8B	-₩15.6B	−17.2%
2025Q4	₩135.8B	-₩76.6B	−56.4%
2026Q1	₩144.8B	-₩1.3B	−0.9%
2026Q2	₩44.3B	-₩50.9B	−115.0%

Annual results
Year	Revenue	Operating profit	Net income (parent)	Op. margin	ROE	Debt-to-equity
2022	₩312.1B	₩7.2B	₩3.9B	2.3%	0.7%	96.3%
2023	₩260.9B	₩1.6B	-₩8.5B	0.6%	−1.7%	108.9%
2024	₩411.8B	-₩1.7B	-₩10.5B	−0.4%	−2.1%	136.5%
2025	₩454.8B	-₩105.7B	-₩132.8B	−23.2%	−36.1%	226.1%

Consolidated basis (financial statements including subsidiaries) · Final figures from DART filings · Net income attributable to owners of the parent · Data as of 2026-09-04

Earnings analysis

Confirmed figures show revenue rising while profitability moved the other way.

Revenue recovered from KRW 312.1 billion in 2022 and KRW 260.9 billion in 2023 to KRW 411.8 billion in 2024 and KRW 454.7 billion in 2025, but operating profit fell from KRW 7.2 billion in 2022 (2.3% margin) and KRW 1.6 billion in 2023 (0.6%) to a loss of KRW 1.7 billion in 2024 (-0.4%), then widened to a loss of KRW 105.7 billion in 2025 (-23.2%).

The 2025 net loss reached KRW 132.8 billion versus KRW 10.5 billion in 2024, and operating cash flow swung from positive KRW 101.1 billion in 2024 to negative KRW 56.5 billion in 2025.

On the balance sheet, liabilities of KRW 830.9 billion against equity of KRW 367.5 billion at end-2025 lifted the debt-to-equity ratio to 226.1%.

Quarterly swings have been wide: revenue was KRW 90.8 billion in 3Q25, KRW 135.8 billion in 4Q25, KRW 144.8 billion in 1Q26 and KRW 44.3 billion in 2Q26, with operating results of minus KRW 15.6 billion, minus KRW 76.6 billion, minus KRW 1.3 billion and minus KRW 50.9 billion respectively.

The 1Q26 operating loss narrowed to KRW 1.3 billion; Korea Investors Service noted in its June 2026 credit opinion that expanded PAFC main-equipment deliveries and provision reversals from slightly improved SOFC yields narrowed the first-quarter operating loss year on year.

The 2Q26 loss, by contrast, reflected overlapping one-off and utilization factors: roughly KRW 30 billion of quality-response costs including PAFC cell stack replacement and about KRW 10 billion of fixed-cost burden from an order gap were concentrated in a single quarter.

Net losses have also repeatedly exceeded operating losses (1Q26: operating loss KRW 1.3 billion versus net loss KRW 13.2 billion; 2Q26: KRW 50.9 billion versus KRW 55.6 billion), indicating a standing non-operating burden such as financing costs.

Industry analysis

Domestic demand for power-generation fuel cells is set by policy volumes.

Under the Ministry of Climate, Energy and Environment's administrative notice, 2026 hydrogen power auction volumes are 500GWh per year for clean hydrogen and 930GWh per year for general hydrogen, with post-2027 volumes to be set next year via notice revision reflecting the 12th Basic Plan for Long-term Electricity Supply and Demand now being drafted.

The 930GWh general hydrogen volume equates to about 125MW of capacity, roughly 30% smaller than before, while the clean hydrogen market shrank to about one-sixth of the prior year's 3,000GWh.

The company's domestic position remains strong: it secured 127MW, or 73% of awarded volume, in 2024 and 107MW, or 60%, in 2025, and contract structures that penalize developers for missing completion deadlines support sequential revenue recognition of the existing backlog.

However, CHPS order contracts in the first half of 2026 totaled just 37MW. The overseas cycle points the other way.

In the U.S., AI data center power demand is outpacing construction of plants and grids; because transmission expansion takes years while a data center can be built in roughly 18 months, on-site power is expanding to bridge the gap.

Competitive intensity is being set there: a lawmaker noted that while Korea capped volumes at 125MW, Bloom Energy in the U.S. has been taking gigawatt-scale volumes as distributed generation. In short, the defining feature of the current positioning is asymmetry: contraction at home and early-stage entry abroad.

Outlook

The first variable to be tested is execution of deferred domestic deliveries.

The company plans more than KRW 300 billion of main-equipment deliveries in the second half; if volumes carried over from the second quarter and CHPS-awarded projects ship on schedule it can draw down inventory and collect cash, but further delays could extend inventory and borrowing pressure into year-end.

Korea introduced the world's first clean hydrogen portfolio standard in 2022, and the company plans to use about 70MW of carried-over volume secured through the scheme for second-half deliveries. The export pipeline is now contract-specific.

The KRW 501.4 billion PAFC contract with HyAxiom will be delivered sequentially from the second half of this year through the first half of 2028 for AI data centers in the U.S.

Meritz Securities estimated on September 3, 2026 that the volume equates to roughly mid-100MW of equipment, said the end customer was not disclosed, and expected full-scale supply from the second quarter of 2027.

In the same report Meritz put the export backlog including August's European SOFC stack contract at about KRW 600 billion and, citing easing fixed-cost burden and stabilizing cell stack replacement costs, projected a swing to profit in the second half of 2027 and 2027 revenue of KRW 1.11 trillion.

DS Investment & Securities, in a September 3, 2026 report, forecast a 2026 operating loss of KRW 63.8 billion while estimating 2027 revenue of KRW 844.4 billion and operating profit of KRW 72.6 billion. The opposing view is equally explicit.

Korea Investors Service judged in June 2026 that, given the enlarged fixed-cost base after heavy capex, transitional burdens until SOFC mass production stabilizes, and price pressure from intensifying competition in the domestic auction market, operating profitability will struggle to escape weak levels for some time and operating cash flow improvement will be constrained.

Capacity expansion is also under review depending on further orders, making the order-delivery-expansion chain a key item to verify.

Valuation

PER

—

PBR

11.5×

ROE

-48.1%

EPS

-₩2,340

BPS

₩3,798

Dividend per share

₩0

With all of the last four quarters in the red, earnings-based multiples cannot be calculated, so comparisons currently rest on book- and sales-based measures.

The shares trade at a sizeable premium to net assets, which can be read as market expectations for revenue recognition of export volumes from 2027 running ahead of confirmed results. The company has never paid a dividend since its spin-off, so shareholder returns do not feature in the valuation debate.

Brokerage views diverge. Meritz Securities said on September 3, 2026 that on 2027 estimates the enterprise value to sales ratio stands at about 2.9 times versus roughly 9 times for Bloom Energy and 5 times for FuelCell Energy, a wide gap, and maintained a Buy rating with a target price of KRW 76,000.

DS Investment & Securities said on September 3, 2026 that it maintained a Buy rating and a target price of KRW 47,000, while Mirae Asset Securities analyst Ryu Je-hyun raised his target price to KRW 42,000 in July 2026 but kept a Hold rating, arguing that stack replacement costs of a similar scale to the first half would recur in the second half, limiting near-term earnings improvement.

Ultimately the multiple debate hinges on how quickly and how much the export contracts convert into revenue and profit, and on when quality costs and fixed-cost burdens normalize.

PER, EPS, PBR and BPS are all calculated in-house (the same method as Naver and Toss) · Dividend yield = cash dividend per share from DART filings (supplemented by KRX) ÷ current price · As of 2026-09-04

Bull factors

Shift from domestic-only to first export references

On September 2, 2026 the company disclosed a KRW 501.4 billion PAFC supply contract with HyAxiom, its first entry into the U.S. power market, with volumes delivered sequentially from the second half of this year to the first half of 2028.

Earlier, on August 5, it signed an SOFC stack supply contract worth about KRW 108.7 billion with Germany's Reverion, its largest-ever export contract at roughly 23.9% of 2025 consolidated revenue, with deliveries through the second half of 2027.

Meritz Securities put the combined export backlog at about KRW 600 billion. With domestic volumes shrinking, the bull case starts from the fact that these contracts change the composition of the revenue base.

Structural nature of on-site power demand for data centers

The contract's backdrop is the U.S. power bottleneck: AI data center demand is outrunning construction of plants and grids, so big tech firms are expanding on-site generation near data centers, with fuel cells emerging as a leading alternative.

The company cites as PAFC differentiators its ability to complete installation at U.S. customer sites within about a year of contract signing, modular architecture allowing phased expansion, and use of waste heat with absorption chillers or heat pumps for cooling.

Meritz Securities views the deal as creating a reference template that should speed future negotiations and sees a high chance of additional orders within the year.

Backlog structure that feeds into long-term service

Korea Investors Service assessed that because a substantial share of orders converts into long-term service work, the company holds a stable long-duration earnings base, with a backlog of KRW 1.9 trillion as of end-March 2026.

Indeed, press reports noted service revenue held at KRW 22.8 billion in 2Q26, little changed from the prior quarter, even as main-equipment revenue collapsed. Contract terms penalizing developers for missing completion deadlines are also cited as supporting sequential revenue recognition of the existing backlog. Separate from short-term earnings volatility, the installed base accumulates.

Bear factors

Shrinking domestic auctions and falling main-equipment backlog

2026 auction volumes were set at 930GWh for general hydrogen and 500GWh for clean hydrogen, a roughly 30% cut for general hydrogen and about one-sixth of the prior year for clean hydrogen.

Korea Investors Service noted that cancellations and downsizing of some 2024-2025 projects shrank the main-equipment backlog to around KRW 30 billion as of end-March 2026.

The company has held more than 60% share of the CHPS market each year since 2023, but a smaller auction market makes domestic-only growth difficult; first-half 2026 CHPS orders were 37MW. With the domestic leg thinner, any delay in overseas execution leaves the gap exposed.

Widening losses and cash flow and leverage burdens

On confirmed figures, the 2025 operating loss was KRW 105.7 billion and the net loss KRW 132.8 billion, while operating cash flow swung to minus KRW 56.5 billion from positive KRW 101.1 billion in 2024, with the debt-to-equity ratio at 226.1% at end-2025.

Press reports said standalone inventories rose KRW 87.5 billion from KRW 368.3 billion at end-March to KRW 455.8 billion at end-June 2026, while cash and equivalents fell by more than KRW 95 billion in three months.

Korea Investors Service said heavy financial burdens are likely to persist for some time as financing costs from enlarged borrowings combine with constrained capital capacity from accumulated losses. Since order growth also consumes working capital, funding terms remain a variable.

Unproven quality costs and SOFC yields

In PAFC, cell stack replacement costs rose for Group C units installed in 2020-2022; the company replaced the remaining 217 Group B stacks in 1Q26, then inspected all Group C units and began replacements in the second quarter, expecting some further replacement demand in the second half.

Mirae Asset Securities analyst Ryu Je-hyun said in July 2026 that while U.S. market entry expectations are positive, the actual profitability of the higher-efficiency SOFC business, notably whether yields reach 90%, still needs to be verified.

The Gunsan SOFC plant booked utilization losses after failing to secure follow-on volumes once the Hy Changwon project was delivered. Without visibility on cost normalization, a revenue recovery need not translate directly into margin recovery.

Risk factors

Financial and liquidity

Operating cash flow turned negative at minus KRW 56.5 billion in 2025 and the debt-to-equity ratio rose to 226.1% at end-2025.

Korea Investors Service judged that while capex burdens should gradually ease after the SOFC plant's completion in June 2025, weak profitability, working capital needs accompanying top-line growth and delayed yield stabilization in the new business will constrain operating cash flow improvement.

Analysts also note that renewed delivery delays could extend inventory and borrowing pressure into year-end. Because large orders require upfront working capital, the company is sensitive to changes in funding conditions.

Policy and regulation

Volumes from 2027 onward will be set next year via notice revision reflecting the 12th electricity plan, and the government plans to finalize the amendment after collecting opinions and open this year's hydrogen power auction in the second half.

The government is also weighing a substantial tightening of environmental evaluation criteria in general hydrogen auctions. Korea Investors Service noted that the 2026 general hydrogen auction volume fell to 125MW, below the 2023-2025 average of around 175MW, and that uncertainty is embedded in market size beyond 2027. Since domestic demand is set by policy, regulatory changes translate directly into order swings.

Order execution and related-party transactions

The end customer for the U.S. contract has not been disclosed and full-scale supply is expected from the second quarter of 2027.

The counterparty is HyAxiom, a Doosan Corporation subsidiary handling fuel cell distribution and maintenance in the U.S., so progress with the final end user affects the timing of revenue recognition.

DS Investment & Securities noted on September 3, 2026 that data center construction bans are spreading in parts of the U.S. over rising electricity bills, pollution and noise. Given the prior history of order cancellations and downsizing, contract values should not be assumed to convert one-for-one into revenue.

What to watch next

Late October to mid-November 2026
Third-quarter 2026 results and the quarterly report. Actual progress on the plan for more than KRW 300 billion of second-half main-equipment deliveries, the size of cell stack replacement costs, and the direction of inventories and net debt form the first test of whether the second-quarter shortfall was a timing issue.
During the second half of 2026
The announcement and award results of the 2026 hydrogen power auction, which the government plans to open after finalizing the revised notice. Whether the company retains its award share within the reduced volume will shape the domestic revenue base.
During the fourth quarter of 2026
Whether additional U.S. data center orders materialize. Meritz Securities said on September 3, 2026 that further orders within the year are likely given the urgency of AI data center investment. Whether this proves a one-off or a repeat order stream is the core test of the export-transition thesis.
First half of 2027
Progress on initial PAFC shipments to HyAxiom and sequential SOFC stack deliveries to Reverion. This is when deliveries should show up as actual revenue and cash collection, alongside checks on SOFC yields and utilization recovery.
During 2027
The notice revision setting auction volumes from 2027 and finalization of the 12th electricity supply plan. The medium-term path for domestic market size will be set at this stage, alongside the outcome of capacity expansion reviews tied to additional orders.

Overall view

Doosan Fuel Cell is moving from a business model heavily dependent on Korea's hydrogen power auction market toward one anchored by export contracts.

The roughly KRW 108.7 billion SOFC stack contract with Germany's Reverion on August 5 and the KRW 501.4 billion PAFC contract with HyAxiom on September 2 are large relative to recent annual revenue. Confirmed results, however, still point the other way.

Revenue rose to KRW 454.7 billion in 2025, but the operating loss was KRW 105.7 billion (-23.2% margin) with a net loss of KRW 132.8 billion, and quarterly swings continued in 2026 with a KRW 1.3 billion operating loss in the first quarter and a KRW 50.9 billion loss in the second.

The second-quarter loss was attributed to about KRW 30 billion of quality-response costs plus roughly KRW 10 billion of fixed costs from an order gap.

The bull case rests on data center on-site power demand and newly secured export references, while the bear case rests on reduced domestic auction volumes, cash flow and leverage burdens, and the persistence of quality costs; brokerage opinions are split between Buy and Hold.

That leaves three verifiable items - second-half delivery execution, additional orders, and cost normalization - as the practical arbiters of the debate. This material is for information purposes only and contains no buy or sell recommendation or target price.

Sources

Korea Exchange (KRX) — Prices · Market Cap · Volume
FSS electronic disclosure system (DART) — Financial statements · Dividend filings

Show 18 more articles and sources

Report written 2026-09-05 · Data as of 2026-09-04

This content is AI analysis of market data and web search results, provided for information only. It is not a solicitation or recommendation to invest. Investment decisions and their consequences are the investor's own responsibility. Data may be delayed or contain errors.