KOSPIRetail & Consumer282330

BGF retail

₩128,100▲ 0.16%2026-10-02 close
Market Cap
₩2.2T
Turnover
₩4.2B
Volume
30,000 shares
Shares out.
17.3M
PER
11.8×
PBR
1.9×
EPS
₩12,458
Dividend Yield
2.78%

PER, EPS, PBR and BPS are calculated in-house from the last 4 quarters (2025Q3–2026Q2) · Dividend yield is based on ₩4,100 per share · Prices as of the 2026-10-02 close

01

Report overview

Past nine trillion won in sales, margin recovery is the question

BGF Retail lifted 2025 consolidated revenue to 9.06 trillion won, yet operating profit has hovered around 250 billion won for four straight years; in the first half of 2026, recovering same-store sales and a better product mix pushed profit back up.

  1. 1

    From 2022 to 2025 revenue grew from 7.62 trillion won to 9.06 trillion won, but operating profit was virtually flat at 252.4 billion to 253.9 billion won, and the operating margin slipped from 3.3% to 2.8%.

  2. 2

    Second-quarter 2026 revenue was 2.4268 trillion won with operating profit of 84.9 billion won, lifting the quarterly operating margin to 3.5%; first-half operating profit rose 33.7% year on year.

  3. 3

    The four major Korean convenience store chains shrank from 54,852 stores in 2024 to 53,266 in 2025, the first annual decline since the industry began in 1988, shifting the growth axis from store openings to per-store profitability.

  4. 4

    CU has passed 800 overseas stores across Mongolia, Malaysia, Kazakhstan and Hawaii, with a stated target of more than five countries and up to 1,200 stores by 2028.

  5. 5

    A Busan logistics center backed by roughly 220 billion won of investment is targeted for completion in the fourth quarter of 2026, while the 2027 minimum wage was set at 10,700 won per hour, up 3.7%, keeping franchisee cost structure in play.

02

Business structure

BGF Retail is the franchisor of the CU convenience store chain, and its core model is sourcing goods for franchised stores and collecting royalties.

The CU convenience store business accounts for roughly 98% of consolidated revenue, and the company itself notes that parent-only revenue is typically about 98% of the consolidated figure.

For the first half of 2026, CU reported parent-only revenue of 4.4424 trillion won and operating profit of 114.7 billion won, while GS Retail's convenience store division (GS25) posted 4.4707 trillion won of revenue and 92.7 billion won of operating profit, leaving GS25 ahead on sales and CU ahead on profit in a very tight race.

CU's store count rose from 17,762 in 2023 to 18,458 in 2024 and 18,711 in 2025.

On the merchandise side, a falling share of tobacco and a rising share of food and processed food have been lifting the average product margin, with private labels PBICK and Heyroo, the PBICK The Kitchen ready-meal line and dessert series serving as differentiation levers.

In the second quarter of 2026, grocery-type categories such as side dishes, cheese and ham grew 18.2% year on year, showing the near-home grocery strategy in numbers.

Delivery and quick commerce are expanding through outside platforms including Naver and Coupang Eats, with CU delivery sales up 91.6% from January to April 2026.

Overseas, the company operates via master franchise agreements in Mongolia, Malaysia, Kazakhstan and Hawaii, but industry analysis puts overseas sales at only a low single-digit share of the total, so the earnings impact remains limited.

Competitively it is a two-horse race with GS25, while Seven Eleven and Emart24 remain behind on both store count and profitability.

03

Earnings trend

Quarterly revenue · Operating profit
RevenueOperating profit
Annual revenue · Operating profit
RevenueOperating profit
Quarterly results · Last 5 quarters
QuarterRevenueOperating profitOp. margin
2025Q2₩2.3T₩69.4B3.0%
2025Q3₩2.5T₩97.6B4.0%
2025Q4₩2.3T₩64.3B2.8%
2026Q1₩2.1T₩38.1B1.8%
2026Q2₩2.4T₩84.9B3.5%
Annual results
YearRevenueOperating profitNet income (parent)Op. marginROEDebt-to-equity
2022₩7.6T₩252.4B₩193.5B3.3%20.1%206.1%
2023₩8.2T₩253.2B₩195.8B3.1%18.2%199.6%
2024₩8.7T₩251.6B₩195.2B2.9%16.5%187.3%
2025₩9.1T₩253.9B₩195.3B2.8%14.9%170.8%

Consolidated basis (financial statements including subsidiaries) · Final figures from DART filings · Net income attributable to owners of the parent · Data as of 2026-09-04

04

Earnings analysis

On an annual basis, revenue rose for four consecutive years: 7.6158 trillion won in 2022, 8.1948 trillion in 2023, 8.6988 trillion in 2024 and 9.0612 trillion in 2025.

Operating profit, however, was essentially flat at 252.4 billion, 253.2 billion, 251.6 billion and 253.9 billion won, so the operating margin fell every year from 3.3% to 3.1%, 2.9% and 2.8%.

Net profit attributable to owners also barely moved, from 193.5 billion won in 2022 to 195.3 billion won in 2025, suggesting a stretch in which top-line expansion did not fully translate into profit.

Quarterly figures show clear peak-season leverage in the third quarter of 2025, with revenue of 2.4622 trillion won and operating profit of 97.6 billion won (a 4.0% margin), before the fourth quarter reverted to 2.2924 trillion won and 64.3 billion won (2.8%).

In the seasonally weakest first quarter of 2026, revenue of 2.1204 trillion won and operating profit of 38.1 billion won took the margin down to 1.8%.

The second quarter of 2026 then delivered revenue of 2.4268 trillion won, operating profit of 84.9 billion won and net profit attributable to owners of 56.8 billion won, restoring the margin to 3.5%.

Management cited fewer rainy days and higher average temperatures, recovering consumer sentiment, the effect of fuel-price relief payments and more inbound tourists, and said results beat market expectations even after one-off costs such as franchisee compensation tied to the April cargo union logistics strike.

Same-store sales growth swung from minus 2.1% in the second quarter of 2025 to plus 4.2% in the second quarter of 2026 with customer counts up 3.0%, while quarterly sales to foreign customers jumped 60.1% year on year.

On the balance sheet, 2025 operating cash flow reached 770.8 billion won, roughly three times operating profit given lease accounting, while equity stood at 1.3131 trillion won against total liabilities of 2.2431 trillion won, taking the debt-to-equity ratio down from 206.1% in 2022 to 170.8% in 2025.

05

Industry analysis

The prevailing view is that Korea's convenience store industry has entered a mature phase of its cycle.

Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy data show the four major chains shrinking from 54,852 stores in 2024 to 53,266 in 2025, the first annual net decline since the format arrived in 1988, while combined sales growth slowed from 8.0% in 2023 to 3.9% in 2024 and 0.1% in 2025.

With Korea's store count approaching that of Japan (57,019 stores) despite Japan having roughly twice the population, analysts argue that pure store-opening competition has hit its limit.

Conversely, per-store efficiency has been improving after the shakeout: in the first quarter of 2026 GS Retail's convenience store operating profit rose 23.8% to 21.3 billion won and BGF Retail's consolidated operating profit rose 68.6% to 38.1 billion won.

Industry indicators also turned up, with average convenience store sales growth improving from 2.7% in January to April 2026 to 5.9% in May and 5.1% in June according to the ministry's retail sales survey.

That recovery, however, blends in temporary drivers such as extreme heat, inbound tourism and government relief payments, so durability still needs confirmation.

On positioning, CU leads on store count and operating profit while GS25 leads on revenue and fresh-food expansion in a very close race; Seven Eleven turned a quarterly profit in the first half of 2026 for the first time in eleven quarters, and Emart24 is still narrowing losses.

The Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry has said the sector faces the limits of volume growth, with both store counts and customer counts falling together for the first time since the format emerged, and pointed to overseas expansion as a necessary avenue.

06

Outlook

For 2026 the company set out a management keyword, FASTER, combining product differentiation (Frontier), overseas expansion (Abroad), social role (Station), retail tech upgrades (Tech-driven), larger stores (Enlarge) and faster service (Rapid).

Domestically it plans to use stores of 100 square meters or more as local hubs for specialty categories such as beauty and health supplements, while segmenting customers through grocery-focused stores, smart grocery formats and outlets tailored to foreign residents and tourists.

Overseas, CU passed 800 global stores during 2026 and has targeted more than five countries and up to 1,200 stores by 2028, including 50 stores in Hawaii within three years and 500 stores in each existing market.

In logistics, a Busan distribution center backed by roughly 220 billion won is under construction with completion targeted for the fourth quarter of 2026; at about twice the size of the existing central center, it is designed to double as an export hub supplying Mongolia, Malaysia and Kazakhstan.

On exports, the company says its export product range widened from about 50 items in 2019 to roughly 1,000 recently, with export value rising from one million dollars in 2019 to more than ten million dollars in 2025.

On costs, the 2027 minimum wage was fixed at 10,700 won per hour, a 3.7% increase, and sector-specific differentiation was again voted down, keeping franchisee labor costs and headquarters support spending in focus.

As for brokerage views, Daishin Securities said in a May 8, 2026 report that same-store sales growth was recovering after the 2024-2025 industry shakeout and maintained a buy rating with a target price of 170,000 won, while Korea Investment & Securities maintained a 165,000 won target price on June 19, 2026 and said the retail sector's investment priority had slipped behind department store operators' stronger results.

07

Valuation

PER
11.8×
PBR
1.9×
ROE
17.2%
EPS
₩12,458
BPS
₩76,580
Dividend per share
₩4,100

The price-to-earnings multiple sits within the roughly 10 to 15 times band commonly applied to Korean retail and convenience store names; Daishin Securities said in its May 8, 2026 report that it applied a 12-month forward multiple of 12 times in maintaining a 170,000 won target price.

The price-to-book multiple is above one, implying a premium to net assets, which can be read alongside a franchise model that generates operating cash flow of around 700 billion won a year on relatively modest capital intensity.

Net profit attributable to owners over the most recent four quarters (third quarter 2025 through second quarter 2026) totaled 215.2 billion won, above the 195.3 billion won recorded for full-year 2025, meaning the earnings base in the denominator has been moving up.

On dividends, the company discloses that profit distribution in line with performance is its basic shareholder-return principle and that the size is set within distributable profit after weighing investment plans, cash flow and financial structure, so dividend capacity relative to cash generation looks comfortable.

At the same time, a four-year record of broadly unchanged absolute profit and an operating margin below 3% of sales are read as constraints on multiple expansion, and Korea Investment & Securities said on June 19, 2026 that the retail sector's investment priority had fallen.

PER, EPS, PBR and BPS are all calculated in-house (the same method as Naver and Toss) · Dividend yield = cash dividend per share from DART filings (supplemented by KRX) ÷ current price · As of 2026-09-04

08

Bull factors

Same-store growth turns positive as mix improves

CU's same-store sales growth swung from minus 2.1% in the second quarter of 2025 to plus 4.2% in the second quarter of 2026, with customer counts up 3.0%.

A shrinking tobacco share and a rising share of food and processed food have been lifting the average product margin, taking the second-quarter 2026 operating margin to 3.5%. Grocery category sales rising 18.2% year on year shows that the near-home grocery strategy is translating into actual sales. Remaining room to improve sales and profit per store is the core of this case.

End of the store-opening race and industry shakeout

With the four major chains' store count falling for the first time in 2025, competition shifted from openings to store efficiency.

In the first quarter of 2026, BGF Retail's consolidated operating profit rose 68.6% to 38.1 billion won and GS Retail's convenience store division gained 23.8%, improving profitability at both leaders at once.

Daishin Securities said in its May 8, 2026 report that the effects of the 2024-2025 industry shakeout were showing up in recovering same-store sales growth. If promotional and support spending previously aimed at winning new stores eases, that setup can work in favor of margin direction.

Gradual build-out of overseas and export channels

CU has passed 800 stores globally, including 600 in Mongolia, and has set a target of more than five countries and up to 1,200 stores by 2028. The company said its first Hawaii store, opened in November 2025, recorded roughly five times the early sales of initial stores in previous overseas markets.

Export items expanded from about 50 in 2019 to roughly 1,000 recently, with export value passing ten million dollars in 2025, and the Busan logistics center due for completion in the fourth quarter of 2026 is planned as an overseas supply hub.

That said, industry analysis puts overseas sales at only a low single-digit share of the total, so the pace of scaling is what matters.

09

Bear factors

Revenue grows while absolute profit stalls

From 2022 to 2025 revenue grew about 19%, from 7.6158 trillion won to 9.0612 trillion won, yet operating profit barely moved from 252.4 billion to 253.9 billion won. Net profit attributable to owners was likewise flat at 193.5 billion to 195.3 billion won.

With the operating margin sliding from 3.3% to 2.8%, the pattern suggests that as the top line grows, selling, logistics and franchisee support costs grow with it. Whether the first-half 2026 improvement carries through to higher full-year profit has yet to be confirmed.

Domestic saturation and reliance on one-off tailwinds

Combined sales growth for the four major chains slowed from 8.0% in 2023 to 0.1% in 2025, and store counts fell for the first time.

The first-half 2026 recovery mixed in temporary factors such as extreme heat, fewer rainy days, more inbound tourists and fuel-price relief payments, leaving the challenge of sustaining growth once those base effects fade.

The Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry has said the sector faces the limits of volume growth as store counts and customer counts decline together. With domestic penetration already near Japanese levels, creating new demand depends heavily on product and service competitiveness.

Labor and logistics variables plus heavier capital spending

The 2027 minimum wage was fixed at 10,700 won per hour, up 3.7%, and sector-specific differentiation was again rejected, raising labor costs for franchised stores that largely run around the clock. Heavier franchisee burdens can feed back as higher headquarters support costs or closure pressure.

Logistics risk hits results directly, as seen in April 2026 when a cargo union strike disrupted normal operations for about a month and created compensation costs for affected franchisees. On top of that, the roughly 220 billion won Busan logistics center investment may add fixed costs such as depreciation.

10

Risk factors

Regulatory and labor risk

The minimum wage rises from 10,320 won in 2026 to 10,700 won in 2027, and calls for sector-specific differentiation were rejected once more. The Minimum Wage Commission recommended that the government set up a task force to review the system, with discussions running through the second half of 2026.

Convenience store operators are responding with partial automation such as kiosks and self-checkout, but full unmanned operation is constrained by age verification for alcohol and tobacco plus theft and safety management.

Franchise-related legal disputes and broader demands for franchisee support are additional cost and reputational variables.

Competition and industry risk

The gap with GS25 narrowed to within 30 billion won on a parent-only basis in the first half of 2026, and such a close race for the top sales position can lead to heavier promotional spending.

Later entrants are also restructuring, with Seven Eleven posting its first quarterly profit in eleven quarters in the first half of 2026. In quick commerce, growing reliance on platforms such as Coupang Eats and Naver makes fee structures a profitability variable. If consumer sentiment weakens again, average ticket size and same-store growth could reverse quickly.

Capital allocation and overseas execution risk

Operating cash flow reached 770.8 billion won in 2025 against annual operating profit of about 253.9 billion won, so how that cash is allocated sits at the center of the corporate value discussion.

How priorities are balanced among large investments such as the Busan logistics center, dividends and affiliate-related transactions is worth watching.

Overseas operations run through master franchise structures, leaving results dependent on local partners' capabilities as well as country-level regulation and currency moves, and even markets with strong early results such as Hawaii may add stores more slowly than targeted. Food safety or regulatory issues at subsidiaries affecting brand trust also cannot be ruled out.

11

What to watch next

  1. Early November 2026

    Third-quarter 2026 results. With the comparison base high at 2.4622 trillion won of revenue and 97.6 billion won of operating profit (a 4.0% margin) in the third quarter of 2025, whether same-store growth and the operating margin hold that level will indicate how durable the first-half improvement is.

  2. Fourth quarter of 2026

    Completion and start-up timing of the Busan logistics center backed by roughly 220 billion won. At about twice the size of the existing central center and slated to double as an export hub, it is worth checking whether higher depreciation or better logistics efficiency shows up in earnings first.

  3. December 2026 to January 2027

    The company's 2027 strategy announcement and progress on overseas store expansion. Actual opening pace against targets of more than five countries and up to 1,200 stores by 2028, plus 50 stores in Hawaii within three years, and any new market announcements, will gauge whether the overseas growth axis is materializing.

  4. January 1, 2027

    The 10,700 won hourly minimum wage takes effect. In a franchise network heavily weighted toward around-the-clock stores, how the labor cost increase feeds into franchisee profitability, headquarters support spending and closure rates is a leading variable for 2027 margins.

  5. February 2027

    Full-year 2026 results and the dividend decision. This is the point to check whether annual operating profit, stuck in the 250 billion won range for four years, steps up to reflect the first-half improvement, and how the payout is set under the company's stated dividend principles.

12

Overall view

BGF Retail posted record consolidated revenue of 9.0612 trillion won in 2025, yet operating profit stayed in the 250 billion won range for four straight years, from 252.4 billion won in 2022 to 253.9 billion won in 2025, with the operating margin easing from 3.3% to 2.8%.

The pattern shifted in 2026: operating profit recovered from 38.1 billion won (a 1.8% margin) in the first quarter to 84.9 billion won (3.5%) in the second, lifting first-half operating profit 33.7% year on year, while same-store growth swung from negative to plus 4.2%.

That improvement, however, mixes in seasonal and policy factors such as extreme heat, fewer rainy days, a 60.1% jump in sales to foreign customers and fuel-price relief payments, so figures after the base effects fade need checking.

Industry-wise, the four major chains' store count fell for the first time in 2025, moving competition from openings to store efficiency, and CU remains in a very tight race with GS25 on both store count and operating profit.

Growth levers on the table include passing 800 overseas stores with a 1,200-store target by 2028 and the Busan logistics center due for completion in the fourth quarter of 2026, though the overseas revenue share is still small and large investments may add fixed costs.

On the cost side, the 10,700 won minimum wage from 2027 and the possibility of renewed logistics strikes bear watching for their effect on franchisee and headquarters earnings.

In sum, a history of flat profit and a recent margin recovery sit side by side, and results from the third quarter onward should show which is the trend. This report is for information purposes and contains no buy or sell opinion or target price.

13

Sources

  1. Korea Exchange (KRX) — Prices · Market Cap · Volume
  2. FSS electronic disclosure system (DART) — Financial statements · Dividend filings
Show 18 more articles and sources
  1. newspim.com
  2. insight.co.kr
  3. inthenews.co.kr
  4. insight.co.kr
  5. youthdaily.co.kr
  6. asiatoday.co.kr
  7. biz.heraldcorp.com
  8. weekly.hankooki.com
  9. ebn.co.kr
  10. sateconomy.co.kr
  11. news.nate.com
  12. newspost.kr
  13. newscj.com
  14. biztribune.co.kr
  15. thebell.co.kr
  16. etoday.co.kr
  17. dailian.co.kr
  18. littlebproject.com

Report written 2026-09-05 · Data as of 2026-09-04

This content is AI analysis of market data and web search results, provided for information only. It is not a solicitation or recommendation to invest. Investment decisions and their consequences are the investor's own responsibility. Data may be delayed or contain errors.