KOSPICosmetics214420

Tonymoly

₩5,080▼ 0.20%2026-10-02 close
Market Cap
₩121.5B
Turnover
₩200M
Volume
30,000 shares
Shares out.
24.1M
PER
11.2×
PBR
1.0×
EPS
₩472
Dividend Yield
0.95%

PER, EPS, PBR and BPS are calculated in-house from the last 4 quarters (2025Q3–2026Q2) · Dividend yield is based on ₩50 per share · Prices as of the 2026-10-02 close

01

Report overview

Export and ODM Growth Amid Margin Pressure

Tonymoly continues to grow revenue through overseas and ODM expansion, but recent gross margin compression and quarter-to-quarter earnings volatility have emerged alongside that growth.

  1. 1

    2025 consolidated revenue rose to KRW 220.3 billion year on year, yet net profit attributable to owners declined, warranting a closer look at earnings quality.

  2. 2

    Operating profit across the most recent four quarters, from Q3 2025 to Q2 2026, swung widely between roughly KRW 0.8 billion and KRW 5.6 billion, indicating earnings have not yet stabilized.

  3. 3

    The share of overseas sales has stagnated in the low-20% range since 2020, though entry into major US retailers such as Walmart and Ulta Beauty is aimed at reversing that trend.

  4. 4

    Channel-specific sub-brands such as Boncept for Daiso and Dermatician for Emart, together with rising utilization at ODM subsidiary Megacos, underpin the company's sales diversification.

  5. 5

    The debt ratio fell from 104.4% in 2022 to 80.4% in 2024 and held roughly steady at 81.1% in 2025, suggesting a broadly stable financial structure.

02

Business structure

Tonymoly runs the Tonymoly and Tune9 brands centered on basic and color cosmetics, with its business portfolio rounded out by ODM subsidiary Megacos and affiliate Taesung Industry.

In 2025, cleansing and moisturizing products accounted for 73% of cosmetics revenue at KRW 159.8 billion, followed by makeup at KRW 56.3 billion (26%) and body care and fragrance products at KRW 13.7 billion (6%).

By distribution channel, directly operated and franchise stores generated the largest share at KRW 78.7 billion (36%), followed by exports at KRW 49.5 billion (22%), online at KRW 22.0 billion (10%), and duty-free at KRW 20.5 billion (9%).

Revenue from new channels such as Daiso surged 145% year on year to KRW 28.9 billion, lifting its share from 7% to 13%. Beyond cosmetics, the company has diversified into pet snacks and pet food, though its pet care and finance-related segments actually contracted in 2025.

As one of Korea's first-generation road-shop brands, Tonymoly competes with Ablecnc, operator of Missha, and Amorepacific's Innisfree and Etude brands. More recently it has shifted from a standalone road-shop model toward expanding distribution through large retail channels such as Daiso, Emart, and Olive Young.

03

Earnings trend

Quarterly revenue · Operating profit
RevenueOperating profit
Annual revenue · Operating profit
RevenueOperating profit
Quarterly results · Last 5 quarters
QuarterRevenueOperating profitOp. margin
2025Q2₩62.5B₩5.6B8.9%
2025Q3₩56.3B₩4.3B7.7%
2025Q4₩52.6B₩800M1.5%
2026Q1₩52B₩4.2B8.0%
2026Q2₩54B₩2.3B4.2%
Annual results
YearRevenueOperating profitNet income (parent)Op. marginROEDebt-to-equity
2022₩126.7B-₩7.3B-₩81,590,565−5.7%−0.1%104.4%
2023₩151.1B₩9.6B₩3.7B6.4%3.9%99.9%
2024₩177B₩12.1B₩16.4B6.8%14.9%80.4%
2025₩220.3B₩14.4B₩11.1B6.5%9.4%81.1%

Consolidated basis (financial statements including subsidiaries) · Final figures from DART filings · Net income attributable to owners of the parent · Data as of 2026-08-23

04

Earnings analysis

Consolidated revenue rose for four consecutive years, from KRW 126.7 billion in 2022 to KRW 151.1 billion in 2023, KRW 177.0 billion in 2024, and KRW 220.3 billion in 2025.

Operating profit swung from a loss of KRW 7.3 billion in 2022 to a profit of KRW 9.6 billion in 2023, then improved further to KRW 12.1 billion in 2024 and KRW 14.4 billion in 2025.

Net profit attributable to owners, however, fell from KRW 16.4 billion in 2024 to KRW 11.1 billion in 2025, largely because gross margin dropped 7.0 percentage points from 49.4% to 42.4%.

On a quarterly basis, operating profit reached KRW 5.6 billion in Q2 2025 and KRW 4.3 billion in Q3 2025 before sliding sharply to roughly KRW 0.8 billion in Q4 2025, then recovering to KRW 4.2 billion in Q1 2026 before falling again to KRW 2.3 billion in Q2 2026.

Net profit attributable to owners followed a similarly uneven pattern over the same period, moving from KRW 2.6 billion in Q2 2025 to KRW 3.6 billion in Q3, KRW 2.8 billion in Q4, KRW 3.5 billion in Q1 2026, and KRW 1.3 billion in Q2 2026.

The 2025 debt ratio of 81.1% remains well below the levels above 100% seen in 2022 and 2023. Operating cash flow held in a relatively stable range of KRW 8.4 billion to KRW 10.2 billion each year from 2022 through 2025, even as reported profit fluctuated.

05

Industry analysis

Korea's cosmetics exports rose 31.4% year on year to USD 1.117 billion in April 2026, marking the first time monthly exports surpassed the USD 1 billion mark.

By region, the United States grew 31% to USD 198 million and Europe surged 87% to USD 207 million, showing the center of gravity of K-beauty exports shifting toward the US and Europe.

Despite this favorable backdrop, Tonymoly's overseas sales ratio has effectively stagnated, moving from 22.5% in 2020 to 22.4% in 2025, even as the absolute value of overseas sales grew from KRW 25.6 billion to KRW 49.4 billion.

By contrast, competitor Ablecnc, operator of Missha, is pushing to withdraw from domestic directly operated stores and duty-free channels and lifted its overseas sales ratio to 69.5% in the first quarter of 2026, while Tonymoly's overseas expansion has been comparatively slower amid continued weakness in China.

To close this gap, Tonymoly is concentrating resources on the US market, and the company has stated that North America accounts for roughly 30% of its total exports.

Yuanta Securities, in a May 2026 report, projected continued solid results into the second quarter on the back of expanding exports, new entries into multi-brand retail stores, and strong growth at its subsidiary.

06

Outlook

Meritz Securities, in a May 2026 report, set out Tonymoly's 2026 consolidated targets at KRW 250 billion in revenue and KRW 18 billion in operating profit, and outlined plans to lift standalone Tonymoly headquarters revenue to KRW 150 billion annually through domestic channel expansion and export market diversification.

Domestically, following entries into Daiso, Olive Young, PX, and Emart, the company plans to add Artbox, convenience stores, and pharmacies as new channels during 2026.

Overseas, it is expanding retail presence through Ulta Beauty in the US, 430 Priceline stores in Australia, and Lohas Mall in Hong Kong, while preparing to enter the Japanese market through a mid- to long-term supply agreement with Itochu.

In May 2026 the company entered 600 Walmart stores nationwide, the largest offline retail network in the US, further broadening its reach in the North American market, which accounts for roughly 30% of total exports.

Its Daiso-exclusive brand Boncept has also expanded overseas, launching curated sets at 1,700 stores of major Japanese drugstore chain Welcia. Rising utilization and mix improvement at ODM subsidiary Megacos are seen as a key variable for consolidated profitability going forward.

07

Valuation

PER
11.2×
PBR
1.0×
ROE
9.7%
EPS
₩472
BPS
₩5,072
Dividend per share
₩50

Tonymoly's price-to-earnings multiple has moved within a fairly wide band over time, tracking swings in the scale of profit since the company turned from loss to profit. The stock trades near book value per share, placing it in a zone with limited premium relative to net assets.

Given the relatively modest scale of dividends, market interest in the name appears more tied to the pace and durability of earnings recovery than to dividend appeal.

It is also worth noting that net profit attributable to owners over the most recent four reported quarters remains below the level reached in 2024, the peak year for annual profit, when weighing valuation.

PER, EPS, PBR and BPS are all calculated in-house (the same method as Naver and Toss) · Dividend yield = cash dividend per share from DART filings (supplemented by KRX) ÷ current price · As of 2026-08-23

08

Bull factors

US Offline Retail Expansion

In May 2026 the company entered 600 Walmart stores nationwide, the largest offline retail channel in the US, expanding its sales network.

The retail industry views this large-scale distribution win in North America, which accounts for roughly 30% of total export volume, as a potential momentum driver for future results.

Having previously entered stores such as Ulta Beauty, Target, and Nordstrom across the US, offline touchpoints have been steadily expanding.

Rising Utilization at ODM Subsidiary Megacos

Expanded utilization and improved product mix at ODM-focused subsidiary Megacos are cited as factors strengthening consolidated profitability.

Some analysis has suggested that the ramp-up of the ODM segment, combined with overseas cosmetics export growth, could become a key driver of future profit growth, though such views stem from research issued at a specific point in time and the actual pace should be tracked quarter by quarter.

Channel Diversification and Sub-Brand Expansion

The company is diversifying its product portfolio through channel-specific strategies such as Boncept for Daiso and Dermatician for Emart. In 2026 it plans to add Artbox, convenience stores, and pharmacies as new channels, with potential to further broaden its sales base. New-channel revenue has already surged 145% year on year, lifting its share of total sales from 7% to 13%.

09

Bear factors

Declining Net Profit and Margin Pressure

Gross margin fell 7.0 percentage points from 49.4% to 42.4% in 2025, and this contributed to a decline in net profit attributable to owners even as revenue grew.

While operating profit improved, the drop in net profit suggests cost or channel-mix shifts may have weighed on earnings quality, a trend that warrants continued monitoring.

Long-Standing Stagnation in Overseas Sales Share

The overseas sales ratio has remained stuck in the low-20% range since 2020, with China business weakness persisting. Compared with competitor Ablecnc, which has pushed its overseas sales ratio to near 70%, the gap is notable. Whether US market expansion can meaningfully narrow this gap remains to be seen.

High Quarterly Earnings Volatility

Operating profit over the most recent four quarters ranged widely from about KRW 0.8 billion to KRW 5.6 billion, and net profit attributable to owners fluctuated between roughly KRW 1.3 billion and KRW 3.6 billion.

This volatility shows how much quarterly results can swing depending on specific channels or subsidiary performance, and several more quarters of data would be needed to confirm a stable earnings trajectory.

10

Risk factors

Cost and Margin Risk

As shown by the 7.0 percentage point drop in gross margin in 2025, changes in raw material costs or channel mix can materially affect margins. If the growing share of new-channel revenue, such as Daiso, is concentrated in lower-priced lines, it could put downward pressure on average selling prices and margins. Whether this pattern is structural or temporary needs to be confirmed with further quarterly results.

Overseas Market Risk

With China business weakness persisting and resources increasingly concentrated on the US market, exposure to external variables such as tariffs, currency movements, and intensifying local competition could rise.

With overseas sales share stagnant in the low-20% range, higher dependence on a specific region could limit risk diversification benefits, and changes in terms with retail partners also warrant monitoring.

Small-Cap Liquidity Risk

Given its small market capitalization, short-term price volatility can be amplified by shifts in foreign or institutional investor flows. There have been observed instances of the stock moving sharply over short periods in line with reversals in foreign net buying or selling. Such flow-driven effects can be more pronounced during periods of thin trading volume.

11

What to watch next

  1. Around November 2026

    Around the time of the Q3 2026 earnings release, this is a key point to check whether operating profit and net profit, which have swung widely in recent quarters, are stabilizing.

  2. Second half of 2026

    It is worth tracking progress on entries into new domestic retail channels such as Artbox, convenience stores, and pharmacies, and whether the revenue share from new channels continues to expand.

  3. From the second half of 2026 onward

    This is a period to track whether the effect of entering 600 Walmart stores in the US is actually reflected in export results and the North American revenue share, currently around 30%.

  4. Early 2027

    Around the time the 2026 annual business report is filed, it will be possible to finally check whether the company met its stated 2026 consolidated targets of KRW 250 billion in revenue and KRW 18 billion in operating profit.

12

Overall view

Tonymoly has moved past its 2022 loss and continued to improve operating profit since 2023, with growth anchored by new channels such as Daiso and Emart, ODM subsidiary Megacos, and expanding US offline retail presence.

That said, in 2025 net profit attributable to owners declined despite revenue growth, driven by a drop in gross margin, and operating profit and net profit over the most recent four quarters both showed wide swings, meaning earnings stability has not yet been fully established.

The overseas sales ratio has stagnated in the low-20% range since 2020, making the extent to which US market expansion can lift that share a key point to watch.

The financial structure appears broadly stable, with the debt ratio having declined from the 100% range to the 80% range and operating cash flow holding steady without major swings.

The company has set 2026 targets of KRW 250 billion in consolidated revenue and KRW 18 billion in operating profit, and whether these targets are met, along with the degree of quarterly earnings stabilization in the second half, will be key points for future assessment.

This report is intended for informational purposes only and does not include a buy or sell recommendation or a target price.

13

Sources

  1. Korea Exchange (KRX) — Prices · Market Cap · Volume
  2. FSS electronic disclosure system (DART) — Financial statements · Dividend filings
Show 18 more articles and sources
  1. jasoseol.com
  2. judal.co.kr
  3. investing.com
  4. comp.wisereport.co.kr
  5. alphasquare.co.kr
  6. m.thinkpool.com
  7. investing.com
  8. judal.co.kr
  9. stocks.pluconnect.com
  10. moneyrecipe.blog
  11. beautynury.com
  12. moneyrecipe.blog
  13. comp.nicebizline.com
  14. home.imeritz.com
  15. tnnews.co.kr
  16. topdaily.kr
  17. m.thinkpool.com
  18. kr.investing.com

Report written 2026-09-05 · Data as of 2026-09-04

This content is AI analysis of market data and web search results, provided for information only. It is not a solicitation or recommendation to invest. Investment decisions and their consequences are the investor's own responsibility. Data may be delayed or contain errors.