KOSDAQRetail & Consumer204620

Global Tax Free

₩5,660▼ 2.92%2026-10-02 close

Market Cap

₩399.2B

Turnover

₩4.6B

Volume

790,000 shares

Shares out.

70.3M

PER

10.7×

PBR

2.4×

EPS

₩528

Dividend Yield

0.00%

PER, EPS, PBR and BPS are calculated in-house from the last 4 quarters (2025Q3–2026Q2) · Dividend yield is based on ₩0 per share · Prices as of the 2026-10-02 close

Report overview

Domestic Refund Growth, Overseas Expansion on Trial

Global Tax Free, Korea's leading tax-refund agency, has rebuilt its earnings on rising inbound tourism, but the outcome of its overseas expansion remains an unconfirmed variable.

1
2025 consolidated revenue reached 154.06 billion won and operating profit 28.99 billion won, both up year on year, while net profit attributable to owners expanded to 34.72 billion won after turning positive in 2024.
2
Revenue in Q1 and Q2 2026 stood at 35.49 billion won and 46.90 billion won respectively, maintaining elevated quarterly levels.
3
The VAT refund program for foreign medical/cosmetic procedures sunset at end-2025, removing a segment that accounted for roughly 20% of 2025 operating profit.
4
The Changi Airport central refund counter monopoly runs through 2030, while new bids in Thailand and Singapore and Japan's revised duty-free law effective November 2026 stand as the next overseas growth variables.
5
Given the precedent of its France and UK subsidiaries undergoing liquidation, some views call for validation of execution capability in overseas expansion.

Business structure

Global Tax Free was founded in 2005 and listed on KOSDAQ in 2014 as Asia's first tax-refund agency business. Its core model is refunding the value-added tax embedded in goods purchased by foreign tourists at tax-free-eligible retailers, in exchange for a commission.

The refund fee structure is inversely related to the refund amount, making the business more profitable when customers buy many lower-priced items rather than fewer high-priced ones.

Domestic merchant partners are centered on Olive Young and major department stores, the retail channels where foreign spending is concentrated.

Overseas, the company operates local subsidiaries in Singapore and Japan, with the Singapore unit holding an exclusive operating right over the central refund counter (CRC) at Changi International Airport through May 2030.

A France subsidiary acquired earlier to expand into Europe went through liquidation following a local customs suspension of its operating license, following the earlier liquidation of its UK unit.

In outbound overseas business, the company has partnered with Planet, the world's second-largest tax-refund operator, combining luxury brand networks such as Gucci and Balenciaga to pursue early positioning in new markets.

It also operates a smaller consumer-goods business through cosmetics subsidiary Swanicoco, though this contributes a modest share of total revenue. The customer base has been shifting from a Chinese-tourist-dominated mix toward a broader base of non-Chinese Asian visitors.

Earnings trend

Quarterly revenue · Operating profit

₩45B₩8.3B25Q2₩45.1B₩8.2B25Q3₩29.7B₩7.4B25Q4₩35.5B₩5.8B26Q1₩46.9B₩9B26Q2

RevenueOperating profit

Annual revenue · Operating profit

₩49.4B-₩2.7B2022₩93.4B₩14.8B2023₩129.7B₩21.8B2024₩154.1B₩29B2025

RevenueOperating profit

Quarterly results · Last 5 quarters
Quarter	Revenue	Operating profit	Op. margin
2025Q2	₩45B	₩8.3B	18.4%
2025Q3	₩45.1B	₩8.2B	18.3%
2025Q4	₩29.7B	₩7.4B	24.8%
2026Q1	₩35.5B	₩5.8B	16.4%
2026Q2	₩46.9B	₩9B	19.3%

Annual results
Year	Revenue	Operating profit	Net income (parent)	Op. margin	ROE	Debt-to-equity
2022	₩49.4B	-₩2.7B	-₩11.2B	−5.5%	−12.9%	37.6%
2023	₩93.4B	₩14.8B	-₩8B	15.8%	−8.9%	53.7%
2024	₩129.7B	₩21.8B	₩5.6B	16.8%	5.1%	36.0%
2025	₩154.1B	₩29B	₩34.7B	18.8%	24.8%	31.6%

Consolidated basis (financial statements including subsidiaries) · Final figures from DART filings · Net income attributable to owners of the parent · Data as of 2026-08-21

Earnings analysis

2025 consolidated revenue reached 154.06 billion won, up from 129.73 billion won in 2024, with operating profit of 28.99 billion won and an operating margin of 18.8%.

Net profit attributable to owners rose sharply to 34.72 billion won from 5.58 billion won in 2024, continuing the turnaround from losses of 8.0 billion won in 2023 and 11.19 billion won in 2022.

By quarter, revenue was 44.99 billion won with operating profit of 8.26 billion won in Q2 2025, holding at a similar level of 45.05 billion won in revenue and 8.25 billion won in operating profit in Q3.

In Q4, revenue contracted seasonally to 29.73 billion won, yet operating profit was 7.39 billion won and owners' net profit was 13.66 billion won — net profit well above operating profit, suggesting non-operating items were also at play.

Q1 2026 revenue of 35.49 billion won and operating profit of 5.82 billion won showed decelerated growth versus the prior year, a pattern attributed to the base effect from the sunset of the medical/cosmetic VAT refund program.

Q2 2026 revenue rebounded to 46.90 billion won with operating profit of 9.04 billion won, pushing the operating margin back above 19%. Market commentary suggests that, stripping out the effect of the sunset program, underlying growth reached roughly 50% in Q1 and about 46.5% in Q2.

On the cash-flow side, 2025 operating cash flow improved to 40.49 billion won from 14.51 billion won in 2024, moving away from the negative cash flows seen in 2022-2023. The debt ratio fell from 53.7% in 2023 to 31.6% in 2025, pointing to improving financial stability.

Industry analysis

Korea's tax-refund market is directly tied to the recovery of inbound foreign tourist arrivals. According to the company, monthly refund sales in December 2024 reached 11.19 billion won, approaching the 2019 peak-season monthly average of 12.61 billion won.

Tourist composition has also been shifting: Chinese visitors accounted for 80% of refund sales in 2016, but by December 2025 non-Chinese refund sales (83.0 billion won) exceeded Chinese refund sales (52.9 billion won).

The government's VAT refund program for foreign medical/cosmetic procedures, in place since 2016, sunset at the end of 2025, a segment the company estimated contributed about 20% of 2025 operating profit.

A policy shift is also underway in which the instant-refund cap was doubled from 1 million won per transaction and a 5 million won cumulative limit, which some analysis suggests could reduce agency commissions earned at departure-area refund counters.

Competitively, Global Blue and Planet divide much of the overseas market as the top two global players, while Global Tax Free holds the leading domestic position and an exclusive operating right at Singapore's airport.

In Japan, a revised duty-free law taking effect in November 2026 will shift the system from a point-of-sale deduction method to a post-purchase refund method, meaning consumers will have to go through a tax-refund company to receive their VAT back.

Thailand, where tourism accounts for 20% of GDP, remains an attractive but underdeveloped market for refund infrastructure, and its tax authority is pursuing a bid to move toward an electronic system.

Outlook

SK Securities, in a May 2026 report, forecast full-year 2026 revenue of 172.0 billion won and operating profit of 32.6 billion won for Global Tax Free, implying an operating margin of 19.0%. The same report expected earnings leverage from overseas expansion to materialize from 2027, strengthening growth momentum.

The Japan subsidiary is expected to benefit from the revised duty-free law taking effect in November 2026, with analysis suggesting that merchant acquisitions centered on airports, large retail chains, and luxury brands could produce initial revenue from the fourth quarter and a full-year contribution from next year.

In Thailand, a formal bid for selection of the refund-counter operator is underway, and the company has said it expects at least 10 billion won in annual operating profit if chosen as the sole operator.

In Singapore, the company has participated in a bid to build a new refund system, saying related revenue could exceed 15 billion won annually if selected.

However, while an SK Securities analyst projected in February 2026 that the Singapore and Thailand bid results would be confirmed within the second quarter of 2026, no official selection outcome had been found through search as of October 2026, making subsequent disclosures worth monitoring.

The company has projected that the roughly 19.5-20 million inbound foreign tourists currently visiting Korea could exceed 30 million within three to four years.

The company has also said it plans to request that the government reconsider the sunset medical/cosmetic VAT refund program, making future tax-law revision discussions another variable to watch.

Valuation

PER

10.7×

PBR

2.4×

ROE

25.4%

EPS

₩528

BPS

₩2,340

Dividend per share

₩0

The price-to-book ratio is trading above the band of roughly 1x seen in past quarterly disclosures, suggesting a larger premium to net assets than in prior periods.

The price-to-earnings ratio, which was difficult to compute or stood very high during 2022-2023 when net profit was negative or minimal, has fallen considerably as net profit has recovered.

No dividends have been paid in any of the past four fiscal years, meaning shareholder returns currently rely on earnings growth itself rather than dividend distribution.

Because the timing of overseas bid outcomes and the actual impact of Japan's regulatory change remain uncertain, the market's view of valuation could shift along with future earnings estimates.

Brokerage reports have generally focused on earnings improvement and overseas expansion momentum, but these are each institution's own projections rather than confirmed figures.

PER, EPS, PBR and BPS are all calculated in-house (the same method as Naver and Toss) · Dividend yield = cash dividend per share from DART filings (supplemented by KRX) ÷ current price · As of 2026-08-21

Bull factors

Structural Growth in the Domestic Business

Analysts note that the simultaneous rise in inbound tourist arrivals and per-capita spending is strengthening the fundamentals of the domestic business.

By securing merchant partnerships with Olive Young, department stores and other retailers where foreign spending is concentrated, the company directly benefits from rising tourist consumption.

Some analyses suggest underlying quarterly growth, excluding the sunset beauty/medical refund effect, has reached the mid-to-high 40% range, indicating growth capacity in the existing business alone.

Overseas Expansion Optionality

The exclusive operating right at Singapore's Changi Airport central refund counter through 2030 underpins stable cash flow. Analysts suggest that if the new Thailand and Singapore bids align with Japan's duty-free law revision, overseas leverage could build from 2027 onward.

The partnership with Planet, combining luxury brand networks, is another point of entry for outbound overseas business.

Improving Financial Structure

The debt ratio fell from 53.7% in 2023 to 31.6% in 2025, reflecting improving financial stability. Operating cash flow also expanded to 40.49 billion won in 2025 from the prior year, moving away from the negative cash flows of earlier periods. Net profit has continued its turnaround from losses in 2022-2023 to profits in 2024-2025.

Bear factors

Base Effect from the Sunset Program

The sunset of the foreign medical/cosmetic VAT refund program at end-2025 removed a segment that had accounted for roughly 20% of 2025 operating profit. The deceleration in Q1 2026 revenue and operating profit growth is related to this effect. Volatility in quarter-over-quarter comparisons may persist until the base effect fully unwinds.

Overseas Execution Risk

The France subsidiary, acquired earlier for European expansion, went through liquidation following a local operating-license suspension, after the UK subsidiary had already been liquidated.

At the time, the France unit generated 11.7 billion won in revenue, accounting for 12.5% of consolidated revenue—not an insignificant share. The new Singapore and Thailand bid outcomes have not yet been officially confirmed, so whether overseas expansion proceeds as planned requires further confirmation.

Policy Variables

With the instant-refund cap doubled, there is a possibility that agency commissions from departure-area refund counters could decline. Whether the medical/cosmetic VAT refund program is reinstated depends on government and legislative decisions, a variable outside the company's control.

The fact that tourist inflows from specific countries can swing with policy and diplomatic factors also adds to revenue volatility.

Risk factors

Regulatory/Policy Risk

The business model is directly exposed to government policy changes, as seen in the medical/cosmetic VAT refund sunset and the instant-refund cap adjustment. Because the outcome of tax-law revision discussions is hard to predict, similar policy variables could recur going forward.

Overseas Execution Risk

As shown by the liquidation of the France and UK subsidiaries, maintaining local regulatory compliance and operating licenses for overseas units is an ongoing management challenge. If the new Thailand and Singapore bids produce results different from expectations, the overseas growth narrative may need revision.

Tourism Demand Volatility

Revenue depends heavily on two variables—the number of inbound foreign tourists and per-capita spending—leaving earnings exposed to external factors such as exchange rates, flight capacity, and diplomatic relations.

While dependence on any single country has eased, as shown by the shift in Chinese versus non-Chinese tourist share, the company remains exposed to swings in overall tourism demand.

What to watch next

By November 16, 2026
Legal filing deadline for the Q3 2026 quarterly report, a point to check the growth trend since the beauty/medical refund sunset and the revenue contribution from overseas subsidiaries.
November 2026
Japan's revised duty-free law takes effect, shifting from the point-of-sale deduction method to a post-purchase refund method; worth checking whether the Japan subsidiary begins booking initial revenue.
During Q4 2026
Official selection results for the Thailand refund-counter operator and the Singapore refund-system builder have not yet been confirmed; watch for disclosures or news confirming the outcome.
Year-end 2026 National Assembly tax-law revision discussions
A point at which reinstatement of the sunset foreign medical/cosmetic VAT refund program could be discussed, allowing a check on the status of the company's request for government reconsideration.

Overall view

Global Tax Free posted 2025 revenue of 154.06 billion won and operating profit of 28.99 billion won, continuing an earnings recovery after losses in 2022-2023.

Entering 2026, Q1 and Q2 revenue remained at elevated quarterly levels of 35.49 billion won and 46.90 billion won respectively, though growth rates have been passing through a deceleration phase driven by the base effect of the beauty/medical VAT refund sunset.

The overseas business combines a stable foundation—the Singapore Changi Airport monopoly—with three overlapping variables: new bids in Thailand and Singapore, and Japan's duty-free law revision, all seen as key factors shaping the earnings path from 2027 onward.

However, the precedent of the France and UK subsidiaries' liquidation also illustrates the risk that overseas expansion may not proceed as planned.

On the policy front, the earnings structure could shift again depending on government decisions regarding the instant-refund cap and whether the medical/cosmetic refund program is reinstated.

Overall, improving fundamentals in the domestic business coexist with overseas expansion expectations, with the actual timing of overseas bid outcomes and Japan's regulatory change remaining the key variables for gauging the future direction of earnings.

Sources

Korea Exchange (KRX) — Prices · Market Cap · Volume
FSS electronic disclosure system (DART) — Financial statements · Dividend filings

Show 18 more articles and sources

Report written 2026-10-03 · Data as of 2026-10-02

This content is AI analysis of market data and web search results, provided for information only. It is not a solicitation or recommendation to invest. Investment decisions and their consequences are the investor's own responsibility. Data may be delayed or contain errors.