KOSPIAerospace & Defense089590

Jejuair

₩4,530▼ 0.98%2026-10-02 close
Market Cap
₩361.7B
Turnover
₩700M
Volume
160,000 shares
Shares out.
80.6M
PER
—
PBR
1.4×
EPS
-₩1,394
Dividend Yield
0.00%

PER, EPS, PBR and BPS are calculated in-house from the last 4 quarters (2025Q3–2026Q2) · Dividend yield is based on ₩0 per share · Prices as of the 2026-10-02 close

01

Report overview

Jeju Air: Alternating Profits Test Balance Sheet Resolve

Jeju Air has swung between quarterly profit and loss since the Muan airport accident, seeking a recovery path while carrying elevated debt levels and accident-related legal and financial risks.

  1. 1

    2025 consolidated revenue of KRW 1.5799tn with an operating loss of KRW 111.7bn, reversing from the prior year's profit

  2. 2

    Operating profit turned positive at KRW 69.0bn in Q1 2026 before swinging back to a KRW 45.0bn operating loss in Q2, underscoring continued quarterly volatility

  3. 3

    Debt ratio jumped to 754.4% at end-2025 from 516.7% a year earlier, with a thin equity base

  4. 4

    The company is monetizing non-core assets, including its AKIS subsidiary stake and older aircraft, to shore up cash

  5. 5

    Investigation into the Muan airport accident and a family damages lawsuit remain unresolved, with the final timeline uncertain

02

Business structure

Jeju Air operates the largest fleet among Korean low-cost carriers, with AK Holdings, the holding company of the Aekyung Group, as its largest shareholder.

The core business is passenger transport on domestic routes such as Gimpo-Jeju and short/mid-haul international routes to Japan and Southeast Asia, while cargo represents a relatively small share.

The company has been shifting capacity toward Japan, where demand remains solid, while trimming flights on some Southeast Asian routes facing oversupply and cost pressure.

Its fleet mix combines existing Boeing 737-800 aircraft with newer Boeing 737-8 (MAX) jets, following a dual-track strategy of expanding the newer type while disposing of older aircraft.

The domestic LCC competitive landscape, once dominated by a 'big three' of Jeju Air, Jin Air, and T'way Air, is shifting as Jin Air signed a merger agreement with Air Busan and Air Seoul to form an integrated carrier.

As of the first quarter of 2026, Jeju Air recorded the highest passenger volume among domestic LCCs, and its load factor also exceeded the national carrier average, indicating resilient demand-side competitiveness.

Heightened public scrutiny of safety management following the December 2024 Muan airport accident remains an ongoing burden for brand image and regulatory response. AKIS, a former IT services subsidiary, was resold within the group as a means of raising liquidity.

03

Earnings trend

Quarterly revenue · Operating profit
RevenueOperating profit
Annual revenue · Operating profit
RevenueOperating profit
Quarterly results · Last 5 quarters
QuarterRevenueOperating profitOp. margin
2025Q2₩332.4B-₩41.9B−12.6%
2025Q3₩388.3B-₩55B−14.2%
2025Q4₩474.6B₩17.8B3.8%
2026Q1₩516.2B₩69B13.4%
2026Q2₩461.8B-₩45B−9.7%
Annual results
YearRevenueOperating profitNet income (parent)Op. marginROEDebt-to-equity
2022₩702.5B-₩177.5B-₩173.9B−25.3%−56.7%442.6%
2023₩1.7T₩169.8B₩134.3B9.8%43.2%536.5%
2024₩1.9T₩79.9B₩21.7B4.1%6.7%516.7%
2025₩1.6T-₩111.7B-₩116.4B−7.1%−42.3%754.4%

Consolidated basis (financial statements including subsidiaries) · Final figures from DART filings · Net income attributable to owners of the parent · Data as of 2026-08-21

04

Earnings analysis

Jeju Air's annual results have swung sharply amid the post-pandemic recovery and the aftermath of a safety accident.

In 2022 the company posted revenue of KRW 702.5bn and an operating loss of KRW 177.5bn (operating margin of -25.3%), but revenue surged to KRW 1,724.0bn in 2023, delivering an operating profit of KRW 169.8bn (9.8% margin) and net income of KRW 134.3bn, marking a clear recovery.

Revenue grew further to KRW 1,935.8bn in 2024, but the operating margin narrowed to 4.1% and net income fell sharply to KRW 21.7bn, coinciding with the onset of the impact from the Muan airport accident late in the year.

In 2025 revenue declined 18.4% year-on-year to KRW 1,579.9bn, and the company swung back to an operating loss of KRW 111.7bn (-7.1% margin) and a net loss of KRW 116.4bn.

On a quarterly basis, losses persisted in Q2 2025 (operating loss of KRW 41.9bn) and Q3 2025 (KRW 55.0bn loss) before turning to an operating profit of KRW 17.8bn in Q4, though net income remained negative at KRW 13.6bn.

Q1 2026 showed a stronger recovery signal with operating profit expanding to KRW 69.0bn and net income turning positive at KRW 16.7bn, but Q2 2026 reverted to an operating loss of KRW 45.0bn and a net loss of KRW 49.2bn, highlighting pronounced quarter-to-quarter volatility.

This swing is largely attributable to cost-side factors such as sharp swings in international oil prices and foreign exchange rates. Operating cash flow remained positive at KRW 6.1bn in 2025 despite the net loss, though this was substantially smaller than the levels seen in 2023-2024.

05

Industry analysis

Korea's aviation industry is navigating a phase of simultaneous international passenger demand recovery and intensifying supply competition among low-cost carriers.

Rapid capacity growth by LCCs on short/mid-haul international routes such as Japan and Southeast Asia has sustained downward pressure on fares, a structural factor cited as delaying profitability recovery across the sector.

Jeju Air's relatively higher exposure to Southeast Asian routes is seen by some analysts as limiting its ability to pass on costs compared with carriers more focused on Japan.

Meanwhile, the industry is entering a consolidation phase, with Jin Air having signed a merger agreement with Air Busan and Air Seoul to form an integrated carrier, while the Korean Air-Asiana Airlines integration process also continues, raising the possibility that overcapacity could ease over the medium term.

Fuel prices and foreign exchange rates remain key variables for the sector overall, with jet fuel price spikes tied to Middle East tensions directly affecting cost structures.

Against this backdrop, Jeju Air has maintained a pure LCC model, prioritizing route efficiency and balance sheet management over aggressive expansion.

Competitors such as Trinity Air are pursuing long-haul route expansion through wide-body aircraft introduction, indicating growing strategic differentiation within the domestic LCC industry.

06

Outlook

Jeju Air has stated that its 2026 management strategy centers on 'substance-focused management,' prioritizing liquidity and balance sheet management through asset sales rather than aggressive expansion.

To this end, the company reduced its confirmed Boeing 737-8 (MAX) purchase commitment from 40 to 32 aircraft, cutting related investment from roughly KRW 4.9tn to about KRW 3.9tn.

It nonetheless plans to continue introducing fuel-efficient new aircraft, targeting five additional purchases by year-end to further raise the share of next-generation jets.

In parallel, the company is disposing of aging owned aircraft and lease-expired planes to reduce maintenance costs and use sale proceeds to improve its balance sheet.

On the network side, it plans to concentrate capacity on the resilient Japan market while flexibly trimming flights on oversupplied Southeast Asian routes.

Over the medium term, industry restructuring including the planned launch of the integrated Jin Air-Air Busan-Air Seoul carrier and the Korean Air-Asiana Airlines integration is a key factor to watch for its effect on competitive intensity once completed.

Management has said it is strengthening substance-focused operations to respond to a volatile business environment, though it has not provided specific numerical annual earnings guidance.

07

Valuation

PER
—
PBR
1.4×
ROE
-40.9%
EPS
-₩1,394
BPS
₩3,269
Dividend per share
₩0

Because Jeju Air's net income has remained negative even on a trailing four-quarter basis, conventional price-to-earnings calculations are not meaningful at this stage. The stock trades at a premium to net asset value, a relationship that should be considered alongside the company's relatively thin equity base.

The company currently does not pay a dividend, limiting shareholder returns through that channel. Given that quarterly results have alternated between losses and profits, valuation metrics are likely to keep moving in tandem with quarterly earnings releases and cost variables such as oil prices and exchange rates.

Ultimately, assessing the current trading level requires looking beyond any single point-in-time metric toward the durability of the earnings recovery and the pace of balance sheet improvement.

PER, EPS, PBR and BPS are all calculated in-house (the same method as Naver and Toss) · Dividend yield = cash dividend per share from DART filings (supplemented by KRX) ÷ current price · As of 2026-08-21

08

Bull factors

Demand Competitiveness and Recovery Signals

In Q1 2026, Jeju Air recorded the highest passenger volume among domestic LCCs, with a load factor above the national carrier average. Operating profit expanded to KRW 69.0bn in the same quarter and net income also turned positive, signaling an entry into a recovery phase. This can be interpreted as supporting evidence of a resilient demand base.

Cost Improvement via Fleet Modernization

Jeju Air holds the most next-generation Boeing 737-8 aircraft among domestic LCCs, with the share of these jets continuing to rise. The newer aircraft offer higher fuel efficiency and lower maintenance costs, contributing to fuel expense savings.

The company is also sequentially disposing of older aircraft to lower fleet age while gaining financial flexibility.

Potential Supply Rationalization from Industry Restructuring

Jin Air has signed a merger agreement with Air Busan and Air Seoul to form an integrated carrier, while the Korean Air-Asiana Airlines integration also continues. One brokerage report projected that once this industry restructuring is completed, overcapacity in Korea's aviation industry could ease. A reduction in competitive intensity could positively affect the fare environment on short/mid-haul routes.

09

Bear factors

Quarterly Earnings Volatility

After consecutive operating losses in Q2-Q3 2025, the company turned profitable in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, only to swing back to an operating loss of KRW 45.0bn in Q2 2026. This illustrates how cost factors such as fuel expenses can heavily sway quarterly results. Some observers view it as premature to conclude the company has entered a stable earnings trajectory.

Sensitivity to Oil Prices and Exchange Rates

A sharp rise in jet fuel prices tied to Middle East instability has been cited as a key background factor behind weaker Q2 2026 results. Some analysis suggests Jeju Air's relatively higher exposure to Southeast Asian routes limits its cost pass-through ability compared with carriers more focused on Japan. As long as fuel cost and exchange rate volatility persist, earnings predictability may remain limited.

Intensifying Competition on Short/Mid-Haul Routes

Analysis suggests that rapidly increasing capacity among domestic LCCs on short/mid-haul international routes such as Japan and Southeast Asia continues to pressure fares downward.

Some brokerages projected that even with revenue growth in 2026, fare declines and intensifying competition would make profitability improvement difficult. There may be a time lag before the effects of industry restructuring materialize.

10

Risk factors

Safety Accident and Legal Risk

The December 29, 2024 Muan airport passenger jet accident killed 179 people, and the final report from the Aviation and Railway Accident Investigation Board, originally targeted for release by mid-2026, has been delayed.

The bereaved families' association retained a law firm ahead of the statute of limitations deadline and began preparing a damages lawsuit against the government, Korea Airports Corporation, Jeju Air, and Boeing, filing an evidence preservation petition in August 2026.

While the investigation continues, the Muan airport runway remains closed, and depending on the findings on responsibility and the scale of damages, the company could face additional reputational and financial impact.

Financial and Liquidity Risk

The debt ratio rose sharply to 754.4% at end-2025 from 516.7% a year earlier, while the equity base has thinned to around KRW 275.2bn. Substantial investment burdens from new aircraft introduction remain, and continued funding needs are expected even after the purchase volume was scaled back.

In response, the company has been monetizing non-core assets such as its AKIS stake and older aircraft, though this remains a one-time cash-raising measure with inherent limits.

Industry and Cost Risk

Amid persistent short/mid-haul international oversupply and downward fare pressure, sharp swings in international oil prices and the won/dollar exchange rate can directly hit the cost structure. The reversal to an operating loss in Q2 2026, attributed to a spike in fuel prices, illustrates this exposure.

While industry restructuring such as the three-way LCC merger is planned, it may take time before its effects are realized.

11

What to watch next

  1. Early November 2026 (expected)

    Check whether the impact of oil prices and exchange rates persists in the Q3 2026 earnings release, along with demand trends on Japan routes.

  2. End of 2026

    This is the point to check whether the plan to purchase five additional Boeing 737-8 aircraft is executed and how much the debt ratio improves through the sale of older aircraft.

  3. March 2027 (planned)

    The launch of the integrated Jin Air-Air Busan-Air Seoul carrier is planned, warranting a review of how the shift in competitive structure affects Jeju Air's route-level fare environment.

  4. Release of the Aviation and Railway Accident Investigation Board's final report (delayed, possibly pushed beyond 2026)

    Once the final cause and responsibility for the Muan airport accident are determined, it could directly affect the subsequent direction of compensation and regulatory response.

  5. After the bereaved families' main damages lawsuit is filed

    Following the evidence preservation procedure, it will be necessary to monitor the scale of claims and progress of the main lawsuit to gauge the potential financial impact.

12

Overall view

Jeju Air has traced a bumpy earnings path since the Muan airport accident, moving from an annual operating loss in 2025 to a profit in Q1 2026 and back to a loss in Q2 2026.

Cost improvement efforts through fleet modernization and route efficiency, along with passenger volume and load factor levels ranking first among domestic LCCs, point to a resilient demand base.

However, a debt ratio reaching 754.4% and ongoing large investment burdens underscore the importance of balance sheet management, which is being supported by monetization of non-core assets such as the AKIS stake and older aircraft.

On the industry side, planned restructuring including the three-way LCC merger and the Korean Air-Asiana Airlines integration suggests a changing medium-term competitive environment, though the timing of these effects remains uncertain.

At the same time, legal uncertainty persists in the form of delayed final accident investigation findings and a pending family damages lawsuit, meaning non-operating risk developments warrant attention alongside earnings.

Ultimately, evaluating Jeju Air will likely involve tracking three parallel threads: the durability of quarterly earnings rebounds, the pace of balance sheet improvement, and the resolution of accident-related risks.

13

Sources

  1. Korea Exchange (KRX) — Prices · Market Cap · Volume
  2. FSS electronic disclosure system (DART) — Financial statements · Dividend filings
Show 18 more articles and sources
  1. v.daum.net
  2. pinpointnews.co.kr
  3. file.alphasquare.co.kr
  4. newsis.com
  5. judal.co.kr
  6. judal.co.kr
  7. finance.thesmileinfo.com
  8. investing.com
  9. kgnews.co.kr
  10. kind.krx.co.kr
  11. times.postech.ac.kr
  12. sisain.co.kr
  13. ajunews.com
  14. danbinews.com
  15. v.daum.net
  16. alphasquare.co.kr
  17. comp.fnguide.com
  18. investing.com

Report written 2026-09-05 · Data as of 2026-09-04

This content is AI analysis of market data and web search results, provided for information only. It is not a solicitation or recommendation to invest. Investment decisions and their consequences are the investor's own responsibility. Data may be delayed or contain errors.